Platinum price forecast after hitting a crucial resistance

Platinum price hit a one-year high hit late last week before pulling back to trade at $1,071 as at the time of writing. Even so, it remains above the two-year-long range of between $900 and $1050.

As observed by the World Platinum Investment Council, the demand/supply imbalance is expected to continue shaping the metal’s price movements in 2025. Reduced mining output is set to place platinum’s supply in 2025 at its lowest in 5 years.

At the same time, there has been a significant shift from the more expensive gold. Heightened demand for platinum in jewelry, investment, and use in hybrid vehicles has further bolstered the platinum price, which is already up by about 20% year-to-date. 

Shift from the expensive gold fuels platinum price

The fundamentals of the platinum market are particularly strong as heightened investor interest, tight supply, and an increase in Chinese demand bolster prices to a one-year high. The recent surge beyond the two-year-long range of between $900 and $1050 has heightened investor interest as bulls forecast a breakout. 

At the same time, there has been a significant shift from the more expensive gold to the cheaper option - platinum. Central bank buying, aggressive tariffs by the US government, and a surge in investment demand have seen gold price record multiple all-time highs in recent months. 

In April, the precious metal soared past $3500 an ounce for the first time to trade at a fresh all-time high of $3,504. While it has since pulled back, it has held steady above the psychologically crucial level of $3,000; trading at $3,319 at the time of writing. According to JP Morgan, the bullion will likely average at $3,675 by Q4’25 and reach $4,000 an ounce by Q2’26.      

Gold’s bullish outlook has attracted more buyers to other precious metals like palladium, which tend to move in tandem with the bullion. Additionally, a significant surge in the demand for platinum jewelry, bars, and coins in China has contributed to the observed rallying in platinum price.   

China customs data released in the past week showed that the Asian country imported 10 metric tonnes of the precious metal in April. Notably, this figure marked a one-year high and a 47% surge compared to its imports in March.

According to the World Platinum Investment Council, which released its Q1’25 report about a week ago, the resurgence of platinum jewelry demand in China is expected to yield a 5% surge in global jewelry demand in the current year.

Demand/supply imbalance shapes platinum bullish outlook

On the one hand, vehicle electrification has been weighing on platinum, which is largely used in catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions. However, the surge in demand for hybrid vehicles in contrast to EVs has bolstered platinum price in recent months. 

For instance, Japan’s Honda Motor has indicated that it will be focusing on producing new hybrid models to capture the growing demand while scaling back on EVs. it plans to cut back on its investment in electrification and software from 10 trillion yen to 7 trillion yen for the period ending in 2030. At the same time, it is set to launch 13 hybrid models globally between 2027 and 2030. 

In addition to the observed growth in demand for hybrid vehicles, there has been a significant surge in demand for platinum for jewelry and investment. According to the World Platinum Investment Council’s Q1’25 report, the precious metal’s total supply for 2025 is forecast to be at its lowest in 5 years; dropping by 4% to 6,999 koz. In the year’s Q1, platinum mining supply fell by 13% YoY to the lowest output level since Q2’20 during the COVID-19 lockdowns.

Platinum price analysis

Platinum price chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the platinum price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. It moved from a low of $837 in 2024 to a high of $1,092. Its highest point last week was the highest point in June last year and the upper side of the ascending triangle pattern.

Platinum price has remained above the all moving averages, signaling that bulls are in control. Therefore, more gains will be confirmed if it surges above the YTD high of $1,092. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the key resistance point at $1,200.