US markets close in red as inflation and trade truce vie with geopolitical tensions

The U.S. stock markets closed a volatile Wednesday session in the red as investors digested a fresh batch of inflation data, cautious news regarding a U.S.-China trade truce, and persistent concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East impacting oil prices. 

The US markets took a breather as the indices snapped a 3-day winning streak.

The S&P 500 Index dipped by 0.39% to 6,015.48 points, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 037%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat from yesterday.

Inflationary undercurrents and a muted CPI report

A key data point influencing market sentiment today was the release of the May 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI). 

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, rose to 2.4% on a yearly basis, a slight increase from April's 2.3% but coming in below the market's expectation of 2.5%. 

The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% in May, matching April's increase. 

On a monthly basis, both CPI and core CPI increased by a modest 0.1%.

While the headline CPI figure was slightly below forecasts, suggesting that the full impact of new tariffs had not yet entirely permeated the U.S. economy, the underlying stickiness in certain components, particularly shelter costs, remains a Federal Reserve concern. 

This muted inflation data offers some breathing room for the Fed, which kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% at its May meeting. 

However, the path forward for interest rate cuts remains a subject of intense debate, with expectations leaning towards patience from policymakers unless a significant downturn in the labor market emerges.

Cautious optimism on trade: the US-China truce

Adding another layer of complexity to the market narrative was the news of a tentative U.S.-China trade truce. 

Following two days of high-level talks in London, both nations reportedly reached a broad consensus on advancing a trade deal, building on earlier discussions. 

President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that a deal was "done," pending final approval, with tariffs on Chinese goods set to be reduced to 55% and China setting 10% tariffs.

Trump also added that China will be supplying rare earth minerals and magnets.

Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, the U.S. market's reaction was notably subdued, with futures dipping earlier in the day. 

This cautious response likely stems from the ongoing pain felt by some Chinese exporters due to existing U.S. tariffs, which remain significantly higher than last year. 

While the agreement aims to roll back dueling export restrictions, the full economic impact and the certainty of long-term resolution are still being assessed by investors.

Oil prices surged after reports of increasing uncertainty in the Middle East. The US crude oil futures gained by 4% after a Reuters report said the US is preparing for a partial evacuation of the Iraq embassy. 

Warner Bros Discovery ended up as the top gainer in the S&P 500 with a near 5% gain.

Starbucks Corporation and Broadcom Inc. were among the top gainers with 4% and 3% jumps.

Intel Corp and United Airlines Holdings were among the top losers with a 6% and 5% decline.