XRP ETF approval odds surge 90% as Canada races ahead with zero-fee products

Investor sentiment surrounding XRP continues to surge as expectations for a US-approved spot XRP ETF reach new highs.

On Polymarket, the decentralised prediction platform, the probability of approval has climbed close to 90% as of June 2025, up from 70% in just a matter of weeks.

The sharp rise in betting odds comes as Bitcoin and Ethereum already trade with spot ETFs on US stock exchanges, making XRP a likely contender for the next wave of institutional crypto products.

While the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delays its decision, Canada has taken the lead by approving and launching its own XRP ETFs, some of which come with zero management fees.

Polymarket volume jumps as traders bet on ETF approval

Activity on Polymarket indicates strong conviction among crypto traders.

More than $95,000 has already been staked on the outcome of the spot XRP ETF decision, making it one of the most active prediction markets on the platform.

This reflects wider anticipation that XRP could become the third major digital asset to gain SEC approval for a spot ETF, after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

If approved, the ETF would significantly lower the entry barrier for investors by allowing exposure to XRP via traditional financial products.

This could appeal to institutional players such as pension funds, asset managers, and hedge funds, many of whom are unable or unwilling to hold crypto directly.

A spot ETF would also reduce operational risk and improve liquidity by facilitating regulated trading through exchanges such as Nasdaq or the NYSE.

SEC extends review of XRP and Solana ETF proposals

Despite mounting optimism, the SEC has opted for caution.

Earlier this month, the agency announced a delay in its decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF proposal, as well as a parallel delay on a spot Solana ETF.

The regulator instead opened a public comment window, which will push the final verdict into the second half of 2025.

While this is not an outright rejection, it reflects the SEC’s ongoing scrutiny of crypto products, particularly those not yet classified as commodities.

The agency’s delays are consistent with its cautious stance in previous rulings.

Before approving spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year, the SEC postponed decisions multiple times and requested extensive feedback from the public and industry experts.

Canada launches XRP ETFs

Meanwhile, Canadian regulators have moved ahead.

Purpose Investments, Evolve, and 3iQ have all launched spot XRP ETFs in Canada after receiving the green light from the Ontario Securities Commission.

Purpose’s XRP ETF has attracted particular attention by eliminating management fees until February 2026.

This move positions it as the first zero-fee XRP ETF globally and aims to attract both retail and institutional investors early in its lifecycle.

Together, Canada’s XRP ETFs already manage $8.3 million in assets, showing real investor appetite.

The regulatory clarity and fast-paced execution in Canada contrast with the US, where policy uncertainty continues to hinder product development.

Canadian firms are now gaining a head start in onboarding institutions looking for XRP exposure in regulated markets.