Global wheat prices face downward pressures as recovery stalled

It seems the recovery in wheat prices in the US is already exhausted.

Wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soared to a four-month high of nearly 600 US cents per bushel last week before paring some of those gains at this week's opening.

The price increase of more than 4% last Wednesday was triggered by weather-related delays in the US winter wheat harvest, according to a Commerzbank AG report. 

“However, the price had already been on the rise for a week at that point, which was probably also related to the weaker US dollar,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at the German bank said in the report. 

US wheat becomes more price-competitive due to a weaker dollar.

US wheat exports

US wheat exports reached a three-week high of 427,000 tons in the last reporting week, according to the US Department of Agriculture. 

However, this increase should not be overemphasised, as exports in the first half of May were already considerably higher.

Last week, the US winter wheat harvest reached 19% completion, according to the USDA. This figure fell slightly short of Reuters' surveyed market expectations.

Following in the footsteps of the US, the EU wheat price has successfully risen back above EUR 200 per ton.

Fritsch said:

Russia exports

Meanwhile, in June, Russian exporters initiated the bidding process for their new wheat crop, setting a price of 14,500 rubles per ton or $184 a ton, SovEcon, a prominent analytical agency focusing on agricultural markets in the Black Sea region said.

The Russian export price of $184 per ton was higher than $173 a ton for the same period last year. 

Additionally, Russian wheat export quotes experienced a slight decline last week, settling at an estimated $226–230 per ton, according to SovEcon. 

This figure represented a modest decrease compared to prices observed a year prior, which ranged from $234–236 per ton. 

Analysts are closely monitoring these shifts, as Russia remains a critical player in the international wheat trade, and its export volumes significantly influence global food commodity prices.

Ukraine wheat harvest

Meanwhile, ASAP Agri, a consultancy firm, forecasts a 3% decline in Ukraine's wheat harvest for the 2025-26 crop year, which begins in a week. 

Production is expected to reach 21.75 million tons.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture's stated range aligns with the export figures. 

However, due to recent EU import quotas on Ukrainian wheat, exports are projected to decrease to 15 million tons.

Russia anticipates a notable increase in its wheat harvest this year, with the Minister of Agriculture projecting an output of 90 million tons, a significant rise compared to last year's figures.

Demand side

Recent data indicates a bearish trend for wheat prices on the demand side. 

Egypt, a major global wheat importer, has reduced its imports by 30% compared to last year, bringing in 4.9 million tons since the start of the year, as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture.

This is probably one explanation for the fall in prices earlier this week, according to Commerzbank’s Fritsch.

The ceasefire that has come into force between Israel and Iran weighed further on prices. 

Middle Eastern countries are expected to import approximately 20 million tons of wheat, according to forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture.

“A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would also have affected wheat supplies to the region,” Fritsch said.