IOTA price crashed after Rebased upgrade: will it rebound?

IOTA price has remained in a tight range at a crucial support level in the past few days. It was trading at $0.1600 on Friday, a few points above the year-to-date low of $0.1400. It has plunged by over 40% from its highest level in March this year. 

Why IOTA price crashed after Rebased Upgrade

IOTA token has been in a strong downtrend in the past few weeks, mirroring the performance of most altcoins. This crypto crash explains why it has dropped in the past few months.

The token has also plunged after the developers launched the Rebased upgrade, which was touted as a game-changer for the network. 

Rebased changed the IOTA network significantly, aligning it with other popular chains like Ethereum, Solana, and Sui. It did that by introducing Move and EVM-based smart contracts, making it possible for developers to build decentralized applications (dApps).

Rebased also made IOTA highly decentralized by incorporating the delegated proof-of-stake features. This, in turn, has enabled users to generate a monthly return by just holding the token. 

Introducing staking in IOTA was a significant development because holders can now earn approximately 13% in annual returns, which is significantly higher than what US bonds and the most popular dividend ETFs offer. 

Data show that IOTA’s staking yield is significantly higher than that of other popular cryptocurrencies, such as Solana and Ethereum. IOTA has a staking market capitalization of over $338 million, giving it a staking ratio of 45%. 

IOTA also introduced the Mysticeti consensus algorithm, which introduced over 50,000 transactions per second (TPS). Additionally, the network implemented a deflationary mechanism that regularly burns tokens. 

IOTA price has crashed because it is yet to gain traction among developers. Data shows that IOTA has just 1 protocol, which has a total value locked (TVL) of over $10.1 million. IOTA EVM has 9 dApps with just $8.6 million in assets. 

These numbers make it much smaller than recently launched chains like Unichain and Sonic, which have attracted millions in assets and stablecoin supply.

On-chain data also shows that it only has 375,000 addresses, with the daily ones being at 457. 

IOTA price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the IOTA token price has been under pressure in the past few months. It has crashed from a high of $0.6362 in December to the current $0.1600. 

IOTA has plunged below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bears are in control. It also moved below the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $0.2185. 

On the positive side, IOTA has formed a large double-bottom pattern at $0.1400 and a neckline at $0.2750. A double bottom is one of the most common bullish reversal patterns. 

Therefore, the token will likely bounce back in the next few days, with the next target being at $0.2750, up by 70% from the current level. A move above that level will point to more upside, potentially to $0.3700, the 50% retracement level.

A drop below the support level at $0.140 will invalidate the bullish IOTA price forecast, and point to more downside, potentially to $0.10.