Global wheat outlook: harvests, exports, and tight stocks drive price revisions

Recent activity in the wheat market has led to price fluctuations within a narrow band. 

Prices have hovered around 540 US cents per bushel on the CBOT and EUR 200 per ton on Euronext, reflecting mixed news.

“The supply coming onto the market as a result of the ongoing harvests has been weighing on prices for weeks,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

By the close of last week, the US had completed 73% of its winter wheat harvest, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Moreover, 52% of the spring wheat plants in the fields remained in excellent or good condition.

A crop tour through North Dakota, the most important spring wheat-growing state, revealed above-average yields, according to USDA. 

This year, the USDA anticipates the US wheat harvest to be around 52.5 million tons, with exports projected at 23 million tons, consistent with last year's figures. 

EU harvests

The EU's wheat harvest is projected by the USDA to reach 137.3 million tons.

This represents a 15 million ton increase compared to last year's poor crop, which was a result of adverse weather conditions.

However, the harvest would also be slightly larger than it was two years ago.

Exports are expected to rise by 6 million to 32.5 million tons.

The EU forecasting unit MARS projects an increase in average soft wheat yields to 6.09 tons per hectare, further supporting the expectation of a strong EU wheat harvest.

That would be 9% more than last year and 6% above the five-year average. 

Russia exports

Fritsch said:

Russian wheat exports are now projected to be 43-44 million tons, a downward revision from the initial 45 million tons by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. This revised forecast follows the current standing of 46 million tons.

The forecast for the Russian wheat harvest has been slightly revised downwards to 88-90 million tons.

However, the USDA's crop forecast for Russia is already significantly lower at 83.5 million tons.

Market remains tight

Wheat stock developments indicate a continued tightness in the market.

Wheat stocks in key exporting nations are projected to reach approximately 60 million tons by the close of the 2025-26 crop year, based on USDA forecasts.

“This would mean that stocks would remain at the low level of the previous year,” Fritsch added. 

US wheat stocks are projected to represent 40% of the total inventories held by major exporting nations. Three years ago, the US share was still 25%.

While stocks in the US are expected to increase further in this crop year, stocks in other exporting countries are likely to decline again.

Price forecasts

Following recent market developments, Commerzbank has revised their year-end forecast for the US wheat price downwards. 

The new projection stands at 570 US cents per bushel, a decrease from the German bank’s previous estimate of 600 US cents. 

At the time of writing, the price on CBOT was around 537 US cents.

This adjustment reflects a thorough reassessment of current market conditions, including global supply and demand dynamics, weather patterns in key growing regions, and broader macroeconomic factors influencing commodity prices.

Fritsch said: