Dow Futures trade mixed today: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens

Dow Futures were modestly higher early Monday, up by as much as 40 points before the open.

The broader market is coming off a strong session, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh record closes, while the Dow ended just shy of its December 2024 high, down less than a quarter percent.

Investors are stepping into a busy week.

The recent US-EU trade agreement has helped improve sentiment, and attention now turns to a packed calendar: a Federal Reserve meeting midweek, a wave of earnings from major companies, and ongoing trade talks, including those between the US and China.

With a mix of macro and company-level catalysts in play, traders are looking for direction as July draws to a close.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs on Monday, continuing a rally that’s gained momentum over the past several weeks.

While the gains reflect a broadly positive tone across markets driven in part by easing trade tensions and solid earnings, there’s still a sense of caution.

The question isn’t just whether the rally can continue, but whether the underlying data and policy signals will justify these levels.

With markets already priced for a lot of good news, any surprises, positive or negative, could set the tone for August.

2. It’s a packed day on the earnings calendar, with several major companies set to report before the market opens.

UnitedHealth, Boeing, UPS, and Procter & Gamble are all on deck this morning, and their results could offer a read on key sectors ranging from healthcare and industrials to logistics and consumer staples.

But the real spotlight is on tech. Later this week, some of the market’s biggest drivers like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple will report quarterly results.

3. The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting today, and while markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged this time around, that doesn’t mean investors aren’t paying close attention.

In fact, the real focus is on the tone of the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, both of which could offer critical hints about what comes next.

At the center of the conversation is the potential for a rate cut later this year. As of now, futures markets are pricing in a roughly 62% chance of a cut at the Fed’s September meeting.

4. President Trump’s new agreement with the European Union has taken some heat off the trade front. Instead of the previously threatened 30% tariffs, the two sides settled on 15%, which markets generally saw as a relief.

It’s not a full resolution, but it does reduce immediate tension.

At the same time, US-China talks are back on in Stockholm. Both sides are trying to lock in a 90-day extension to the current tariff pause before the August 12 deadline.

5. Investors are keeping an eye on key economic data today, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the latest consumer confidence figures for July set to drop.

Either report could shift market sentiment, especially as traders look for clues about the health of the labor market and how consumers are feeling in the current environment.