Jio IPO may drive telecom tariff hikes, unlock value; PTs suggest 27% upside

Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) continued their decline on Monday, falling by close to 0.4% after their 2% drop on Friday following the company’s 48th Annual General Meeting (AGM) wherein company chief Mukesh Ambani announced his plan to list the company's telecommunications arm Jio in the first half of 2026.

Despite the market reaction, most analysts remain upbeat on the oil-to-telecom conglomerate’s long-term prospects.

They cited the planned listing of Jio, the group’s rapid retail expansion, and its aggressive push into Artificial Intelligence (AI) and new energy ventures as structural growth drivers.

Jio IPO set to be India’s biggest listing

Ending years of speculation, Ambani confirmed on Friday that Reliance Jio will debut on the Indian stock market in the first half of 2026, subject to approvals.

The listing, expected to raise more than $6 billion through a 5% stake sale, could surpass Hyundai Motors India’s $3.3 billion flotation in 2024 to become the country’s largest-ever IPO.

“Jio is making all arrangements to file for its IPO. We are aiming to list Jio by the first half of 2026,” Ambani told shareholders.

“This will demonstrate that Jio is capable of creating the same quantum of value as our global counterparts.”

Ambani had first indicated in 2019 that both Jio and Reliance Retail would be listed within five years.

IPO announcement could led to telecom tariff hikes, unlock shareholder value

Analysts view the IPO roadmap as a critical step to unlock shareholder value and provide greater transparency into Jio’s business performance.

Brokerages broadly retained their bullish stance on RIL, with price targets suggesting up to 27% upside from current levels.

Citi maintained its “buy” rating with a price target of ₹1,690, calling the Jio listing timeline the highlight of the AGM.

JP Morgan, which has an “overweight” rating and a ₹1,695 target, said the IPO announcement increases the probability of telecom tariff hikes, a move that could boost Reliance’s earnings.

Jefferies echoed the view, projecting a 20% cumulative tariff increase for Jio by FY27. It retained a “buy” call with a target of ₹1,670.

Macquarie, with an “outperform” rating and a ₹1,650 target, called the IPO clarity a “key positive,” noting multiple growth levers across Reliance’s portfolio.

JM Financial reiterated its “buy” with a higher target of ₹1,700, highlighting Jio’s growth potential, Reliance’s AI foray through its new unit “Reliance Intelligence,” and ongoing partnerships with Meta and Google.

JM Financial believes hikes could arrive as early as 2025, benefiting both Reliance and rival Bharti Airtel.

Motilal Oswal expects Jio to deliver a 19% Ebitda CAGR between FY25 and FY28, supported by tariff increases, subscriber growth, and expansion in home broadband and enterprise services.

The brokerage also pointed to Reliance Retail’s continued scale-up and RCPL’s growing footprint as strong contributors to future earnings.

O2C and new energy businesses remain important

While Jio and Retail remain the central focus, analysts are also watching developments in RIL’s oil-to-chemicals (O2C) and new energy businesses.

JM Financial flagged Reliance’s ₹75,000 billion O2C expansion and its rapid progress in renewable energy, both of which are expected to support the company’s ambitious plan to more than double Ebitda by 2027.

Motilal Oswal expects earnings recovery in O2C after a subdued FY25, though it projects consolidated Ebitda from O2C and E&P to remain 4% lower than FY24 levels by FY28.

Nonetheless, it forecasts an 11% CAGR in consolidated Ebitda and profit after tax over FY25-28.