SovEcon lowers Russian wheat export outlook for 2025-26 season

SovEcon, a leading agricultural consultancy, has announced a downward revision of its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports during the 2025-26 marketing season. 

The new projection stands at 43.4 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease from their previous estimate of 43.7 MMT. 

This marks the first downgrade to Russia's wheat export forecast for the upcoming season, indicating a potential shift in market expectations or underlying agricultural conditions.

Given Russia's significant role as a global wheat exporter, even a seemingly modest reduction of 300,000 metric tons could have implications for international grain markets, affecting prices and trade flows.

“Earlier upward revisions had reflected improving crop prospects, but demand has stayed sluggish while early-season shipments have been weak,” SovEcon said.

July-September wheat exports

Wheat exports from July to September are projected to be around 11.0 MMT, according to the consultancy. 

This represents the lowest start to a season since 2022-23, a period when trade was significantly impacted by the outbreak of war.

If 2022-23 is discounted, then this year marks the weakest beginning since 2017-18. 

Wheat exports for July–December are projected to hit 23 MMT, contributing to an overall grain shipment total unlikely to surpass 30 MMT, SovEcon said. This figure falls short of the agriculture ministry’s 33 MMT forecast.

Russian wheat exports are projected to maintain a sluggish pace throughout October. 

Challenges

This period of slower activity is anticipated to precede a series of challenges for Russian exporters later in the year. 

These challenges include seasonal weather disruptions, which can impede harvesting, transportation, and port operations, as well as intensified competition from other major wheat-producing nations. 

Specifically, Australia and Argentina are expected to emerge as stronger contenders in the global wheat market, potentially offering more competitive prices or larger export volumes as their respective harvests come online. 

This combination of internal logistical hurdles and external market pressures is likely to influence the dynamics of the international wheat trade in the coming months.

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said: 

Decline in south

SovEcon’s previous projection for the 2025 wheat harvest in the Southern region indicated a notable decline earlier this week. 

The estimated output stood at 30.9 MMT, which represented a decrease compared to the previous year’s harvest of 32.6 MMT, SovEcon said. 

Furthermore, this projection was significantly below the five-year average for the region, which typically sees a production of 35.0 MMT.

Meanwhile, Russian 12.5% protein wheat export prices rose by $1.5 to $228–229 per metric ton (FOB), ending a four-week decline.

This increase was driven by tight supply, a stronger ruble, and global market factors.

Additionally, SovEcon has increased its barley export forecast by 0.2 MMT, bringing the new total to 3.4 MMT. 

The corn export forecast remains unchanged at 2.8 MMT.

Consequently, the total grain export estimate has risen to 52.5 MMT, an increase from the previous month's estimate of 52.3 MMT.