Silver steals the spotlight from gold with 57% rally in 2025

Even as gold has hit a series of record highs recently, silver’s rally remains more impressive this year so far. 

Silver prices on COMEX have risen by a whopping 57% since the start of the year, outperforming even gold, which has gained 45%. 

Last month alone, gold's little brother rose by 15%.

The metal is just shy of its record high of close to $50 per ounce hit in 2011. The most-active contract on COMEX breached the $47 an ounce on Monday for the first time in 14 years. 

“We have pointed this out many times: there are no (new) fundamental reasons for the sharp rise in prices,” Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank AG, said in a report. 

The physical silver market was already undersupplied long before its recent rally.

Nguyen added:

Economic data

Both gold and silver benefitted from the latest economic data releases in the US. 

Silver, which is a non-interest-bearing asset, is attracting buyers.

This surge in interest follows the US August inflation report, which has increased the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve implementing another interest rate cut in October.

The US Commerce Department reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) increased by 0.3% in August, which was consistent with the 0.2% rise observed in July. 

This figure also aligned with the estimates from economists surveyed by Reuters.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October.

There is also an approximate 65% probability of a further easing in December.

Investors are currently anticipating several key US economic reports, including data on job openings, private payrolls, the ISM manufacturing PMI, and the non-farm payrolls report. 

These figures are expected to offer further insights into the overall health of the economy.

Safe-haven interest

The price of silver is also bolstered by a rise in safe-haven demand, as traders prepare for potential US government shutdown risks.

US President Donald Trump will meet congressional leaders on Monday to discuss government funding.

A potential government shutdown looms from October 1 if a deal isn't reached, aligning with the introduction of new tariffs on various goods, including trucks and pharmaceuticals. 

According to reports, this impasse could also lead to delays in crucial economic data, such as the September payrolls report.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index was trading around 98.00, indicating a weakening of the greenback against six major currencies.

A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback cheaper for overseas buyers, generating more demand. 

“Silver has grabbed the baton from gold and is now in the vanguard of the rally in precious metals,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. 

“However, caution is now also advised with regard to silver: here, too, the record high from 2011 of just under USD 49 per troy ounce is approaching,” Commerzbank’s Nguyen noted.