EU agrees to 90% emissions cut for 2040, but target is diluted

In last-minute negotiations, EU climate ministers reached a provisional agreement on a 2040 climate change goal early Wednesday, according to a draft EU document. 

The target was diluted as ministers hurried to finalise the deal ahead of the UN COP30 summit in Brazil, Reuters said in a report.

Following over 18 hours of talks, European Union climate ministers informally supported a compromise proposal to reduce emissions by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. 

Provisions and targets

However, EU diplomats noted that the plan includes provisions allowing this target to be weakened.

The agreement is expected to be formally approved when EU ministers meet again later on Wednesday morning. 

Diplomats noted that the deal has sufficient support, requiring backing from at least 15 member states, despite indications of opposition from a few countries, including Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.

According to the draft EU agreement reviewed by Reuters, the lowered emissions target would permit nations to purchase foreign carbon credits to offset up to five percent of the mandated 90 percent emissions-reduction goal.

This measure would effectively reduce the emissions cuts required from European industries to 85%. 

To compensate for the remaining cuts, foreign countries would be paid to achieve those emissions reductions on Europe's behalf.

Use of carbon credits

In the future, the draft indicates that the EU might allow member states to use international carbon credits to cover an additional 5% of their required 2040 emissions reductions. 

This provision has the potential to reduce individual countries' domestic reduction targets by a further 5%.

To avoid arriving at the COP30 climate summit empty-handed, the EU is urgently working to finalise its new climate target. 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to meet with other world leaders at the summit on November 6.

Spanish Environment Minister Sara Aagesen told reporters on Tuesday:

To appease hesitant countries, the draft compromise included a provision that the EU would soften other contentious climate policies. 

This includes postponing the scheduled launch of a forthcoming EU carbon market for one year, moving the start date to 2028.

Opposition to the policy has come from Poland and the Czech Republic, who are concerned about potential increases in fuel prices.

According to the news report, countries were divided on the level of flexibility for carbon credits. 

France and Portugal requested a 5% flexibility, while Poland and Italy sought 10%. Conversely, Spain and the Netherlands were against any further reduction of the target.

Opposition

A backlash from industries and certain governments skeptical of Europe's capacity to finance ambitious climate measures alongside defense and industrial goals has led to the watering down of the emissions-cutting target. 

The European Commission had initially put forward a 90% reduction target, permitting a maximum 3% share from carbon credits.

Polish Deputy Climate Minister Krzysztof Bolesta was quoted in the report as saying on Tuesday:

The original 90% target was met with opposition from countries including Poland, Italy, and the Czech Republic. 

They considered the goal too restrictive for their domestic industries, which are already facing challenges from high energy costs, more affordable Chinese imports, and US tariffs.

The Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden are among the countries that justified their ambitious goals by citing the increasing frequency of extreme weather and the necessity to accelerate domestic manufacturing of green technologies to compete with China.

Independent climate science advisers for the EU have cautioned that the purchase of foreign CO2 credits could redirect essential investments away from European industries.