Financial strain forces Russian farmers to flood market, driving down prices

Russian agricultural producers are currently offloading their grain and oilseed harvests at an unprecedented rate, a trend that market analyst SovEcon attributes largely to acute financial pressures within the farming sector. 

This record pace of sales is a strong indicator of underlying economic difficulties faced by farmers who may be liquidating assets prematurely to meet immediate operational costs, debt obligations, or to simply maintain cash flow amid a challenging economic landscape. 

The speed and volume of these sales suggest a market urgency that goes beyond typical seasonal supply, pointing to a potentially unsustainable financial environment for many agricultural enterprises in the region.

Record sales volumes and benchmarks

Grain sales by Russian farmers reached an unprecedented 11 million metric tons (mmt) in September, establishing a new all-time high for monthly sales, according to data released by Rosstat. 

This exceptional volume highlights a period of strong supply and active trade within the Russian agricultural sector.

Complementing this surge in grain trade, oilseed sales also hit a significant benchmark in September, totaling 1.7 mmt. 

This figure not only represents a record high for the month of September but also matches the absolute all-time high volume previously set in 2020. 

It is noteworthy that this earlier peak in oilseed sales occurred just before the Russian government implemented export taxes on sunflower seeds, a major component of its oilseed exports. 

Grain sales in October reached 9.3 mmt, marking the highest sales for that month since 2022, when sales hit 9.9 mmt following a record harvest. 

Separately, oilseed sales achieved 3.0 mmt. This figure is the second-highest monthly total ever recorded, slightly trailing the record of 3.1 mmt set in December 2023.

Financial strain intensifies price pressure

SovEcon said in its latest update:

According to SovEcon calculations, the pre-tax income for grain and oilseed producers totaled 67 billion rubles (with an exchange rate of USDRUB = 78.6) between January and August 2025. 

This figure represents a 25% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year, according to the consultancy.

Despite increased sales, Russian grain prices are experiencing downward pressure. 

By mid-November, the average price for 12.5% protein wheat in European Russia dropped to 13,600 rubles per ton, a 7% decrease since early August, data from SovEcon showed. 

Similarly, sunflower prices have declined to 35,675 rub/metric tons, reflecting a 2% fall from their peak in September.

This trend indicates a challenging market for grain producers amidst high supply.

“We believe farmers will be forced to continue selling stocks at a relatively fast pace, adding further pressure to both domestic and global prices,” Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon, said.