Commodity wrap: silver hits new record high, dwarfing gold's rise; oil prices up post CME outage chaos

Gold prices rose to a two-week high and were on track for a fourth consecutive monthly high on rising bets that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. 

Meanwhile, silver prices have outperformed gold this week, with the metal on COMEX hitting a new record high on Friday.

The metal has spiked nearly 11% so far this week, dwarfing gold's 3% ascent from last week.

Oil prices were higher, with the West Texas Intermediate crude oil rising 1%, while Brent reversed losses from earlier in the day. 

Trade on CME Group's platform was halted across several markets—including currency, foreign exchange, commodities, Treasuries, and stock futures—due to an outage at the exchange.

This affected WTI crude in particular, as prices were not available even after other futures markets were back to normal. 

Gold and silver

The underlying momentum for gold remained positive, according to experts. 

The likelihood of a December rate cut has increased significantly, with traders now assigning an 85% probability, up from 50% just a week ago. 

This environment of lower interest rates is typically favourable for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Expectations for the central bank to cut interest rates next month have been bolstered by recent developments.

These include comments from influential figures such as Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, alongside the release of weaker-than-anticipated US economic data following the government shutdown.

At the time of writing, the gold contract on COMEX was at $4,227.50 per ounce, up 0.6%. 

On the other hand, this morning, silver saw a sharp increase, surging past $54.30 to reach its highest price in over two weeks.

At the time of writing, prices surged more than 4% to hit a new record high of $55.200 per ounce on COMEX. 

“So, many traders will be on the lookout for a price drop from here. On the other side of the argument, silver may rally on to fresh all-time highs, thereby invalidating the set-up,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. 

Morrison further said that traders may be vigilant about silver going into the weekend. 

Oil mixed

Trading in WTI futures has been disrupted due to a CME Group outage, with WTI pricing unavailable till midday in the UK, even though other futures markets had returned to normal. 

Despite the WTI issue, Brent crude prices indicated a slight pull-back today, following a rally that occurred on Thursday.

“Despite this, there was no indication that oil was ready to break out from the mild downward trend which has been building over the past four-to-five weeks,” Morrison said. 

Anticipation for Sunday's OPEC+ meeting influenced traders, who had already factored in the likelihood of production increases remaining on hold.

“However, it seems unlikely that the parties will quickly agree on a peace plan,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

The semi-annual OPEC+ meeting on Sunday is not expected to introduce any significant new market drivers, she added.

Despite a weekly gain of over 1%, both WTI and Brent contracts are on track for their fourth consecutive monthly loss—a streak not seen since 2023—as the prospect of increased global supply pressures prices downward.

Base metals

Base metal trading is muted this Friday, caught in a holding pattern.

Market liquidity is exceptionally thin due to the US Thanksgiving break, a condition exacerbated by the halt in all CME trading following a cooling failure at a third-party data centre. 

“The halt has temporarily frozen activity, reinforcing the sense of caution across macro markets and raising the risk of a catch up volatility burst once normal trading resumes,” Neil Welsh, head of metals at FCA regulated multi-asset brokerage Britannia Global Markets, said in an emailed commentary.

Aluminium prices have retreated, falling below $2850. 

This movement reflects an underlying market that is tighter but not experiencing an uncontrolled surge. 

The tension between structural constraints—such as China's capacity limits, high power costs in Europe, and impending carbon border regulations—and current softer demand in certain Asian regions, along with robust "green" consumption, points toward persistent market volatility continuing into 2026, rather than a sustained, unidirectional rally, Welsh said.

At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $11,184 per ton, up 2.2%, while aluminium was $2,872.50 per ton, up 1.4%.