Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe hit 50-year low after Ukrainian route closure

Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe plummeted by 44% in 2025, reaching their lowest level since the mid-1970s, driven by the closure of the Ukrainian route and the European Union's ongoing phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports, Reuters calculations showed on Tuesday.

The European Union has made a firm declaration that it intends to completely halt the importation of natural gas from Russia by the close of 2027.

This ambitious commitment is a cornerstone of a broader strategic effort designed to achieve two primary objectives. 

Firstly, the move is critical to overcoming the bloc's historical and substantial energy dependency on Russia, a reliance that has been exposed as a significant geopolitical vulnerability. 

Secondly, and with direct bearing on the current conflict, the cessation of gas imports is intended to withhold substantial revenue streams that could otherwise be used to finance Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine. 

EU’s policy shift

This policy shift is a major element of the EU's wider response to the war, seeking to exert economic pressure while simultaneously bolstering the Union's energy security and accelerating its transition to alternative energy sources. 

The 2027 deadline provides a challenging but achievable timeframe for Member States to diversify their energy suppliers, invest in renewable energy infrastructure, and expand alternative fuel import capacity, such as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals.

Europe was previously the primary source of budget revenues for Russia from oil and gas sales.

This was facilitated by pipelines that were constructed between the Soviet Union and Western Europe during the 1960s and 1970s.

In 2018-2019, Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe reached a high of over 175-180 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually. 

These exports generated tens of billions in revenue for Gazprom, a company in which the Russian state holds a controlling stake, and for the Russian state itself.

Ukraine declined to renew transit deal

However, this year, Gazprom delivered only 18 bcm of gas. This supply was exclusively sent via the TurkStream undersea pipeline, according to Reuters, which based its calculations on data from the European gas transmission group Entsog.

This was the lowest volume delivered since the early 1970s. 

In the early years of exporting gas from Siberia, the Soviet Union's supplies to Europe significantly increased, according to Gazprom data.

Exports grew from 6.8 bcm in 1973 to 19.3 bcm in 1975.

TurkStream now serves as Europe's sole remaining route for Russian gas transit.

This follows Ukraine's decision not to renew its five-year transit agreement with Moscow, which lapsed on January 1.

In addition to Turkey, countries such as Serbia, Hungary, and Slovakia receive gas through the TurkStream pipeline.

Russia is the EU's second-largest supplier of LNG after the US, which is exported to Europe via tankers.

Supplies to Europe via TurkStream saw a notable increase in December, reaching approximately 56 million cubic metres per day.

This represents a 12.9% rise compared to the same month the previous year and a 3% increase from the volumes recorded in November, according to the data.

Exports to Europe through TurkStream have seen an increase of approximately 7% this year, rising from 16.8 bcm in 2024, according to the data. 

When combined with the volumes transported via the Ukrainian route, total exports reached 32 bcm in 2024, marking a 13% increase compared to 2023.

Turkey receives approximately 20 bcm of gas annually from Gazprom.