UNH stock: what next for the top laggard in the Dow Jones Index?

The UnitedHealth (UNH) stock price dropped by 32% in 2025, making it the worst-performing company in the Dow Jones Index. This crash pushed its market capitalization from a peak of $541 billion in April to $297 billion today. This article explores why the giant insurance company plunged and what to expect.

Top reasons why the UnitedHealth stock price crashed 

UnitedHealth, one of the biggest insurance companies in the world has had a rough patch in the past few years, a move that culminated in the fatal shooting of Brian Thompson, its CEO, in December last year.

The killing by Luigi Mangione was likely because of the ongoing frustration about claims denials by the biggest insurance companies in the United States.

The crisis escalated after the company published its financial results and withdrew its forward guidance, citing the elevated Medicare Advantage costs, which drove the medical care ratio to alarming levels.

As the crisis escalated, the company’s CEO, Andrew Witty, stepped down in May this year, sending a signal that the company’s fundamentals were not doing well. A CEO resignation is often seen as a highly bearish catalyst for a stock.

The UNH stock price also plunged as the Department of Justice (DoJ) launched an investigation into the company’s dealings, especially on Medicare fraud. 

Will the UNH stock rebound in 2026?

With the UNH stock price down by double digits this year, the question among investors is whether it will rebound in the new year.

There are some potential bullish catalysts for the stock, which explains why it has rebounded by 40% from its lowest level this year.

One of the catalysts is that Warren Buffett, one of the best investors of our time, bought the dip. His company now holds 5.06 million shares worth over $3.9 billion, making it one of the biggest holders.

Other hedge fund investors like Appaloosa Management, Lone Pine Capital, and AQR have bought the dip, a sign that they expect it to rebound over time.

The other potential catalyst for the UNH stock is that its revenue growth resumed in the third quarter. Its revenue rose by 12% to $113 billion, higher than what analysts were expecting. The medical care ratio (MCR) of 89.9% was in line with expectations, and the management sees it falling over time.

Wall Street analysts also expect the company's revenue will get to $113.38 billion, up by 12.47% YoY, which will bring its annual revenue to $447 billion. It will then make $456 billion next year.

Additionally, analysts are also hopeful that the UNH stock price will rebound. The average estimate is that the target will be $392, up sharply from the current $392. The most recent upgrade was from Cowen, which raised its target from $335 to $338.

UnitedHealth share price technical analysis 

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the UNH share price has rebounded from a low of $232 in July to the current $328.

It has moved above the Supertrend indicator, which is a highly bullish sign. Also, it is in the process of forming a bullish pennant pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will bounce back, potentially to the key resistance level at $378, its highest level in October. This price target coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.