Reliance Industries weighs Venezuelan crude imports as analysts see margin upside

India’s Reliance Industries Ltd said on Thursday it would consider purchasing Venezuelan crude oil if access is opened to non-US buyers, signalling a potential shift in sourcing strategy amid fast-changing geopolitics in the global energy market.

The company, which operates the world’s largest refining complex, said it was waiting for clarity on whether Venezuelan oil could be sold beyond the United States following recent developments in Caracas and Washington.

“We await clarity on access for Venezuelan oil by non-US buyers and will consider buying the oil in a compliant manner,” a Reliance Industries spokesperson said in response to a Reuters query.

Sanctions backdrop reshapes crude flows

The comments come after the United States and Venezuela reached a deal this week to allow exports of up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude to the US, equivalent to around 30–50 million barrels.

The agreement followed the capture of President Nicolas Maduro by US forces on January 3, marking a dramatic escalation in the country’s political crisis.

Reliance had stopped buying Venezuelan oil in March last year after Washington imposed a 25% tariff on countries purchasing crude from the South American nation.

The Indian conglomerate received its last Venezuelan cargo in May before halting imports.

The company’s refineries in Jamnagar, Gujarat, have a combined capacity of about 1.4 million barrels per day and are designed to process cheaper, heavier grades of crude such as Venezuela’s Merey.

That flexibility has historically allowed Reliance to benefit from discounted supplies during periods of market dislocation.

Analysts see near-term upside for Reliance

Market analysts say a reopening of Venezuelan crude exports could offer a quicker upside for Reliance than for state-run peers.

Dharmesh Kant, head of research at Chola Securities, said Indian energy companies could broadly benefit from the Venezuelan situation, with Reliance emerging as an early winner.

“For Reliance, the benefit could come faster through changes in crude sourcing,” Kant said, adding that while some estimates suggest a $5–8 per barrel advantage, he expects gains closer to $3–4 per barrel after factoring in currency movements.

He has set a price target of ₹2,100 for the stock based on FY27 earnings.

Jefferies analysts Bhaskar Chakraborty and Aman Chowdhary also said a potential lifting of sanctions could allow Reliance to secure Venezuelan crude at a discount to Brent, supporting its refining margins.

Russian oil retreat adds to uncertainty

The developments come as India has scaled back purchases of Russian oil amid mounting Western pressure.

Reliance halted Russian crude imports in late October after sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil required buyers to wind down transactions.

A Bloomberg report last week suggested three tankers carrying Russian crude were headed to Jamnagar, but Reliance denied the claim.

In a post on X, the company said it had not received Russian crude in the past three weeks and was not expecting any deliveries in January 2026.

Reliance has since turned to non-blacklisted suppliers, making Venezuelan crude a potential alternative if sanctions are eased.