Samsung expects record Q4 profit as AI-driven memory chip boom lifts earnings

Samsung Electronics expects record, above-consensus earnings for the final quarter of 2025, underscoring the scale of an artificial-intelligence-driven rebound in the global memory-chip market.

The South Korean technology giant said demand linked to AI infrastructure has pushed chip prices sharply higher, restoring its semiconductor business as its main profit engine.

In preliminary results released Thursday, Samsung estimated that operating profit reached about 20 trillion won ($13.81 billion) in the fourth quarter.

The figure more than tripled from a year earlier and exceeded a FactSet-compiled consensus estimate of 17.679 trillion won.

It also surpassed the company’s previous quarterly record of about 17.6 trillion won, set in the third quarter of 2018.

AI fuels a memory chip supercycle

Samsung, the world’s largest maker of memory chips and smartphones, has been a major beneficiary of soaring prices for memory products over the past year.

The surge has been driven by the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence, as technology companies invest billions of dollars in data centers and AI infrastructure.

While Samsung’s profits were once dominated by its smartphone business, semiconductors have again become the company’s largest earnings contributor.

In recent periods, the chip division has accounted for more than half of total profits, reflecting the strength of the current “memory supercycle.”

Quarterly revenue for the October-to-December period is forecast to have climbed 23% from a year earlier to around 93 trillion won, Samsung said.

For the full year 2025, the company projected revenue of about 332.77 trillion won, up 11%, while operating profit was expected to jump 33% to 43.53 trillion won.

Samsung did not provide a detailed breakdown by business segment and is scheduled to release its full quarterly results, including divisional earnings, later this month.

Tight supply and rising prices

Analysts say the earnings surge reflects tight supply conditions across the memory market.

Chipmakers are prioritizing production for AI-related memory used in data centers and accelerators, which has limited availability for chips used in conventional servers, smartphones, and personal computers.

Counterpoint Research said the memory market has entered a “hyper-bull” phase, with current conditions surpassing the peak seen in 2018.

The firm estimates memory prices rose 40% to 50% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and expects similar gains in early 2026, followed by another rise of around 20% in the second quarter.

Nomura analysts expect the memory supercycle to last until 2027, while HSBC analyst Ricky Seo forecasts that the semiconductor uptrend could extend for four to five years.

Stock rally and competitive pressures

Samsung’s shares have reflected that optimism.

The stock more than doubled in 2025 and has risen a further 18% in early 2026.

Over the past 12 months, shares have been up more than 145%, although they traded down in the choppy trading following the earnings guidance.

Despite its strong performance, Samsung continues to trail domestic rival SK Hynix in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are critical components in AI processors such as those designed by Nvidia.

Expanding HBM production capacity is expected to be a key focus for Samsung in the coming year.

Samsung is set to release its audited earnings and hold its quarterly earnings call later this month, when investors will look for more details on how long the AI-driven momentum can be sustained.