Russian wheat exports poised for January surge amid price advantage

Russian wheat exports are poised for a significant surge in January, with SovEcon estimating shipments of 3.0–3.4 million metric tons (mmt). 

The SovEcon projection is notably higher than the 2.3 mmt exported a year ago and slightly above the five-year average of 3.1 mmt, driven by strong price competitiveness and a resurgence in demand from key global buyers.

The robust competitiveness of Russian wheat continues to serve as a primary driver, sustaining export flows at remarkably elevated levels, particularly for this phase of the marketing season. 

This aggressive pricing strategy solidifies Russia's dominant position in the global grain market.

Wheat quotations

In the most recent trading period, Russian wheat was quoted at highly attractive Free On Board (FOB) prices ranging from $225 to $227 per metric ton, according to SovEcon. This pricing represents a significant discount when compared to alternative origins.

In contrast, European Union (EU) wheat, encompassing offerings from the key Black Sea origins of CVB (Constanta, Varna, and Burgas, covering Bulgaria and Romania), was notably higher. EU wheat quotes stood at approximately $232 per metric ton.

This $5 to $7 per metric ton difference in price provides Russian wheat with a substantial competitive edge, incentivising international buyers—especially those in key importing regions like the Middle East and North Africa—to favor Russian supplies. 

The consistency of this price differential is instrumental in maintaining the current high volume of Russian exports, directly influencing global benchmark prices and market dynamics. 

This sustained export pressure from Russia is a key factor that other major wheat-producing regions must contend with.

Demand for Russian wheat has increased among major importing countries.

For instance, in late December, Egypt's Mostakbal Misr acquired 0.7 mmt of wheat, with Russia expected to supply a significant portion of this volume, SovEcon said.

Driven by a robust harvest and better export margins, Russia has ramped up its export volume recently. 

The country exported a record 5.1 mmt of wheat in November, followed by 4.2 mmt in December—the highest December volume seen in the last eight years, SovEcon data showed.

Market dynamic shifts

Despite recent downward pressure on prices due to record harvests in Argentina and Australia, the market dynamic is shifting. 

With the harvests in both Southern Hemisphere nations mostly complete, these bumper crops are now largely factored into current prices. 

As an example of this shift, the Free On Board (FOB) price for Argentine wheat increased to $210 per metric ton by mid-January, up from $206 the previous month. This indicates a mixed but potentially stabilizing outlook.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected Russian wheat exports at 44.0 mmt in January, slightly lower than the 44.6 mmt forecast by SovEcon in December for the 2025-26 period.

“Strong exports and a relatively large wheat crop in Russia could lead to upward revisions to export estimates this season,” Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon, said.