Commodity wrap: storm, supply woes lift oil; gold eases but remains near highs

Oil prices jumped on Tuesday as a massive storm hit crude production and operations at refineries in the US Gulf Coast. 

Meanwhile, gold prices fell, but remained near their recent record highs above the $5,100 per ounce level. 

Silver prices on COMEX also fell sharply after hitting a record high of $113.438 per ounce earlier in the day. 

Most base metals are seeing softer prices this morning. The sole exception is Tin, which continues its strong rally as the month draws to a close.

Oil climbs 1%

Crude oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, supported by supply disruptions caused by a winter storm in the United States and a slower-than-expected restart of production at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield.

West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above $61 a barrel, while Brent moved past $65 a barrel.

The gains followed a winter storm that swept across large parts of the US over the weekend, likely disrupting oil output and refinery operations along the Gulf Coast.

Texas, the largest oil-producing state in the US, was among the areas affected.

The state is home to the Permian Basin, the country’s biggest shale oil region, which accounts for roughly half of total US crude production.

Analysts and traders estimate that production losses due to weather-related events could reach up to 2 million barrels per day, though official figures are not yet accessible.

“That would be significantly more than comparable winter storms in the past, which led to short-term production losses of around 1 million barrels per day, for example in February 2021 and January 2024,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG said. 

The extreme cold and resulting power outages forced some refineries to either reduce or completely shut down their operations, Fritsch added.

Kazakhstan's key oilfield, Tengiz, is expected to restore less than 50% of its usual production by February 7.

This is said to be due to the slow recovery following a fire and power outage.

Conversely, the CPC, which manages Kazakhstan's main export pipeline, has announced a return to full loading capacity at its Russian Black Sea coast terminal.

This follows the completion of maintenance work at one of its three mooring points.

Gold and silver ease

Gold prices fell slightly as investors booked profits after the yellow metal notched up record highs on Monday. 

Prices, however, still remained above the $5,100 per ounce mark. Meanwhile, silver prices also fell sharply after hitting record highs.

Prices are currently around $106.567 per ounce on COMEX.

The persistent rally in precious metal markets continues. This week's start saw gold's price surge past the $5,000 threshold, following silver's breakthrough of the $100 mark last Friday.

“The driver of this movement is likely to be the so-called “debasement” narrative, i.e. an erosion of confidence in fiat currencies (money whose value is based on trust in the institutions that issue it),” Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank, said in a report. 

Recent concerns regarding currency debasement have been amplified by escalating geopolitical tensions (such as those involving Greenland) and increased criticism aimed at undermining the Federal Reserve's independence.

Nevertheless, the financial market has seemingly harbored skepticism about the stability of certain fiat currencies for a considerable period.

Gold's 18% surge so far in 2026 continues a trend from last year, driven by several key factors. 

These include ongoing safe-haven demand due to global geopolitical and economic instability, anticipation of US interest rate reductions, and strong purchasing activity by central banks.

Separately, in trade developments, President Donald Trump announced on Monday his intention to increase tariffs on South Korean imports, specifically targeting automobiles and other goods.