ArcelorMittal beats profit forecasts as EU trade support lifts steel outlook

ArcelorMittal closed the final quarter of 2025 with results that exceeded market expectations, reinforcing signs of a recovery taking shape across Europe’s steel industry.

The Luxembourg-headquartered group reported stronger core profit as steadier demand outside China, combined with regulatory support in Europe to improve trading conditions.

Earnings beat underpinned by resilient performance

ArcelorMittal reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation of $1.59 billion for the fourth quarter, above analysts’ average estimate of $1.51 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Full-year EBITDA reached $6.54 billion, EBITDA per tonne rose to $121 for the year, more than double the levels seen at the trough of previous cycles.

The improvement was supported by asset optimisation, diversified geographic exposure, and contributions from strategic growth projects.

Net income attributable to equity holders reached $3.15 billion in 2025, compared with $1.34 billion a year earlier, while adjusted net income came in at $2.94 billion.

Europe regains strategic importance

Europe has moved back into focus as a core earnings driver, with ArcelorMittal aiming to progressively regain market share at its domestic mills.

The company expects apparent steel demand excluding China to grow by 2% in 2026, with European operations positioned to benefit as imports ease and utilisation rates recover.

Years of pressure from low-cost imports had weighed on margins and output across the region.

Management has indicated that lower imports should translate into higher capacity utilisation, restoring profitability and more sustainable returns on capital for European producers.

Trade measures reset the playing field

European steelmakers have broadly welcomed recent initiatives from the European Union aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing.

Central to this shift is the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which took effect on January 1 and applies a levy to carbon-intensive goods entering the bloc.

This has been reinforced with a new tariff-rate quota tools proposed by the European Commission, which are expected to further curb imports over time.

Together, these measures are improving visibility for European steelmakers and encouraging a gradual recovery in output.

Cash flow and investment support recovery

Beyond Europe, ArcelorMittal’s results were supported by strong cash generation and progress on strategic investments.

Over the past 12 months, the group generated $1.9 billion in investable cash flow, broadly in line with the previous year.

In 2025, it invested $1.1 billion in strategic capital expenditure, returned $0.7 billion to shareholders, and allocated $0.2 billion to mergers and acquisitions.

Strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion of additional EBITDA during the year, including record iron ore shipments from Liberia, expansion of renewables capacity in India, and the consolidation of Calvert operations in the US from June 2025.

Recently completed and ongoing projects are expected to add a further $1.6 billion of EBITDA potential, with $0.7 billion anticipated in 2026 and $0.9 billion from 2027 onward.

The company ended the year with net debt of $7.9 billion and total liquidity of $11.0 billion.

Both Moody’s and S&P upgraded ArcelorMittal’s credit ratings in 2025.

As demand outside China strengthens and EU trade protections take hold, ArcelorMittal expects steel production and shipments to increase across all regions in 2026.

Capital expenditure is projected at $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion as the group positions itself to benefit from infrastructure spending, the energy transition, and rising demand linked to defence and data-centre capacity.