Gold near 2-week high: is Trump’s Iran timeline driving gains?

Gold rose to a near two-week high on Wednesday as the dollar weakened, following US President Donald Trump's statement that the war with Iran could wind down within two to three weeks.

As per Reuters, spot prices gained alongside US futures, while broader equity and bond markets also firmed on hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East.

Prices near two-week highs, dollar eases

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,685.79 per ounce by 0228 GMT and earlier touched $4,723.21, its highest since March 20.

US gold futures for April delivery added 0.8% to $4,713.40.

The US dollar fell 0.2%, making commodities priced in dollars more affordable for buyers using other currencies.

Geopolitics and market mood

According to Reuters, President Trump said Tehran did not have to make a deal for the conflict to wind down, and he will address the nation on Iran.

“Talks that the US might wrap up the war in two to three weeks, even if the Strait (of Hormuz) is not reopened, reinvigorated the US equity markets and pulled gold higher along with it,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir, cited by Reuters.

Global equity and bond markets jumped on speculation of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, Reuters added.

Rates backdrop and what could come next

Gold fell more than 11% in March in its steepest monthly drop since October 2008, pressured by expectations of tighter monetary policy and a stronger dollar since the Iran war started on February 28.

Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, compared with about two cuts expected before the war.

Meir cautioned that “the upside (to gold prices) is being limited due to the fact that interest rates can move higher if inflationary expectations reignite.”

Gold tends to benefit in a low-rate environment because it does not yield income.

“Should geopolitical tensions de-escalate further, then expectations for Fed easing could return. In such a scenario, real yields can ease, providing support for gold,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC, according to Reuters.

Other precious metals and market check

Spot silver slipped 0.8% to $74.53 per ounce, platinum rose 0.7% to $1,963.22, and palladium gained 0.6% to $1,484.84.

Investors will watch Trump’s Wednesday evening address for signals on the conflict’s trajectory and any hint of how policy expectations might shift.

Gold advanced as the dollar eased on hopes the Iran conflict could de-escalate within weeks, lifting risk sentiment while keeping rate expectations in focus.

With March’s sharp drop still fresh, upcoming geopolitical signals and interest rate outlook remain the key drivers for bullion in the near term.