TLT ETF stock forecast as Peter Schiff warns on the US 30-Year Bond yields

The iShares 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) dropped sharply on Monday as long-term government bond yields soared.

TLT dropped to $84.9, its lowest level since March 27. It remains 5.50% below its highest point in February this year. 

TLT ETF drops as US 30-year Treasury yields soar

American and foreign investors are selling long-term government bonds aggressively as the debt jumps.

Data shows that the US public debt has jumped to over $39 trillion and will then move to over $40 trillion in the coming months. 

As a result, the 30-year yield jumped from last year’s low of 4.52% to over 5% today, its highest point since July 2025.

In an X post on Monday, Peter Schiff warned that the yield will jump to over 7% as concerns about the US economy remain. 

Short-term government bond yields have jumped in the past few days as concerns about the US-Iranian ceasefire continued.

The ten-year yield has continued rising as inflation risks remain.

The main concern among investors of long-term government bonds is that the US is on an unsustainable path in terms of debt.

For example, the Trump administration has requested to boost its defense spending to over $1.5 trillion.

The US has already spent over $25 billion in the ongoing US-Iran war. 

At the same time, there is a risk that the more traditional buyers of US public debt will continue selling as the safe-haven status wane.

For example, China has reduced its total holdings from over $1.2 trillion a few years ago to below $700 billion today. European and other holders may start reducing their holdings.

At the same time, American Wall Street investors have continued to dump these bonds, with the TLT ETF shedding over $4 billion this year.

US 30-Year Government Bonds yield technical analysis 

30-Year yield | Source: TradingView 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the US 30-Year yield has continued rising in the past few months, moving from a low of 4.522% in October last year to over 5% today.

A closer look shows that it yield has formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bullish reversal sign in technical analysis. 

The yield has already moved above the ascending trendline, which is its neckline.

It has remained above all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have continued rising.

Therefore, the price will likely continue rising in the near term, potentially to the key resistance level at 5.155%, its highest point in May last year.

TLT ETF stock technical analysis

TLT stock chart | Source: TradingView 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the TLT ETF stock has crashed in the past few weeks, moving from a high of $89.90 to the current $84.9.

This retreat happened after the fund formed a double-top pattern whose neckline is at $85.27, its lowest level on June 20th.

The TLT ETF has remained below all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index and the MACD have continued falling.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it continues falling, potentially to the key support level at $84, its lowest level in September last year.