Bitcoin price outlook: is same pattern that caused 400% gains forming again?

Bitcoin has continued holding above $80,000 even as derivatives traders remain cautious and geopolitical tensions around Iran keep pressure on global risk markets.

According to CryptoQuant analyst CW8900, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is close to forming a “golden cross” against its 200-day exponential moving average, a setup the analyst described as a “representative trend reversal signal” and a bullish indicator for price direction. 

The analyst noted that similar crossovers after the 2022 cycle bottom and again in September 2023 were followed by rallies of 90% and 400%, respectively.

Bitcoin price chart with MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant 

During Monday’s trading session, Bitcoin rose to $82,000, where perpetual futures funding rates climbed to an annualized 6% and entered neutral to bullish territory for the first time in more than a month.

Typically, a sustained move into positive funding territory could encourage more leveraged long positioning if Bitcoin manages to hold above key resistance levels.

Bitcoin futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas.

CryptoQuant data also showed Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis moving back into profit after Bitcoin’s recent recovery toward $83,000.

The metric, which tracks the average entry price for holders owning Bitcoin for less than 155 days, placed the “heated” zone near $92,000 and the overheated range around $104,000.

According to CryptoQuant, a move into those zones could indicate stronger speculative activity and accelerated momentum before signs of market exhaustion begin to appear.

However, derivatives data showed hesitation among professional traders, with funding rates spending most of the recent period below zero as demand for bearish positioning stayed elevated.

Persistent caution among traders could limit upside momentum and increase the risk of another rejection near the $82,000 to $85,000 range if fresh spot demand fails to enter the market.

At the same time, outflows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds late last week have added to concerns that institutional demand may be cooling near current levels.

Traders are closely monitoring ETF activity as a measure of institutional participation, especially after Bitcoin failed several times to maintain momentum above $82,000.

Oil rally and ETF outflows pressure sentiment

Outside crypto markets, the diplomatic deadlock between the US and Iran continued to feed volatility across commodities and equities. 

On May 11, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to ease tensions, calling the terms “totally unacceptable” because they did not address nuclear enrichment demands.

Iran’s proposal, delivered through Pakistani mediators, reportedly included requests tied to war reparations and control over the Strait of Hormuz. 

With the maritime route still partially blocked, Brent crude oil climbed above $104 per barrel on May 12 while West Texas Intermediate traded near $98. 

The US administration announced the loan of 53.3 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on May 11, although prices remained elevated as traders priced in supply risks and inflation concerns. 

Several institutional forecasts have warned that Brent crude could climb toward the $110 to $150 range if negotiations collapse further.

Bitcoin has largely avoided a sharp breakdown despite the macro pressure.

Analysts tracking geopolitical risk noted that continued escalation could push Bitcoin back toward the $75,000 support range, while easing tensions and softer inflation data may support another move toward the $90,000 psychological level.

At the time of publication, the Bitcoin price was hovering above $81,200 with gains of less than 1% on the day.