Weak derivatives signal keeps Cardano below $0.170

Cardano lost 28% of its value in the last seven days, losing its position in the market to become the 15th-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

It has declined below the $0.1700 level, with sentiment largely unsettled by remarks from founder Charles Hoskinson, which briefly intensified uncertainty across the market before being partially clarified.

Cardano drops to 15th on the CMC list

Cardano was the 10th-largest cryptocurrency by market cap a few weeks ago. However, it has lost nearly $4 billion in market cap during that period and has dropped to 15th place. 

ADA lost 30% of its value in the last seven days after Hoskinson posted “I’m taking a break, TTYL” on X, triggering confusion among investors. 

However, the Cardano founder later clarified during a livestream that he was stepping back from social media engagement rather than exiting the project, emphasizing continued commitment to the project’s long-term development.

Despite the clarification, ADA had already dropped sharply, reaching a low near $0.148, its weakest level since late 2020, before recovering modestly.

In addition to that, on-chain data suggests a divergence in large-holder behavior during the selloff.

According to Santiment supply distribution metrics, wallets holding 10M–100M ADA accumulated roughly 220 million ADA during the dip.

Meanwhile, wallets holding 100K–10M ADA collectively reduced exposure by about 140 million ADA.

This metric indicates that while some large investors viewed the correction as a buying opportunity, others continued to distribute holdings into weakness.

In addition to that, the futures market metrics point to declining interest in ADA exposure.

Open interest has dropped to around $361 million, down significantly from a recent high of $585 million in May. 

The decline brings participation back to levels not seen since late 2024, suggesting reduced speculative activity.

Finally, ADA’s long-to-short ratio sits near 0.67, indicating a continued bearish tilt as traders position for further downside.

Cardano technical outlook: Will ADA stay above $0.140?

The ADA/USD 4-hour chart is extremely bearish as Cardano remains firmly in a downtrend.

At press time, ADA is trading at $0.167, below the 50-day EMA at $0.230, the 100-day EMA at $0.258, and the 200-day EMA at $0.330.

Momentum indicators continue to reflect weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below 50, indicating a bearish trend, while the MACD remains negative, signaling persistent bearish momentum.

If the bulls regain control, ADA could face major resistance at the 50-day EMA level ($0.232).

A daily candle close above this level would expose higher resistance zones at $0.258, $0.299, and $0.332 

However, if the selloff continues, Cardano could likely drop to the $0.140 support level in the near term.

While whale accumulation suggests some investors are positioning for a potential rebound, broader market structure remains fragile. 

Weak derivatives activity, heavy technical resistance overhead, and recent sentiment shocks indicate that any recovery in Cardano may remain limited unless buying pressure strengthens significantly in the near term.