XRP price bounces near $1.15, but bears still control the bigger trend

Ripple's XRP is trading around $1.15 on Tuesday, up by 1% in the last 24 hours as risk appetite showed early signs of a return in the cryptocurrency market. 

The rebound comes despite muted ETF inflows since the start of the week.

Most cryptocurrencies remain under pressure following a brief weekend recovery, with investors closely monitoring escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Retail traders gradually return to XRP derivatives

XRP is up by 1% in the last 24 hours as the XRP derivatives markets are showing signs of renewed participation from retail traders.

Perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) climbed to approximately $2.44 billion on Tuesday, up from $2.28 billion.

The increase suggests traders are slowly returning to the market and adding exposure despite elevated uncertainty.

While the increase in OI remains minor, it indicates growing speculative interest that could provide short-term support if broader market conditions stabilize.

However, institutional demand has been muted since the start of the week. Data obtained from CoinGlass ETF page revealed that there was no inflow into XRP ETFs on Monday.

XRP ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.62 million last week through Friday, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive flows. 

Currently, the cumulative inflows stand at approximately $1.43 billion, while total net assets stand at roughly $928 million.

The continued inflow trend suggests that long-term investors remain interested in XRP despite ongoing market volatility.

XRP price analysis: Bears still control the trend

The XRP/USD 4-hour chart is bearish as the coin lost 8% of its value in the last seven days. 

At press time, XRP is trading at $1.15, below the 50-day EMA at $1.33, 100-day EMA at $1.41, and the 200-day EMA at $1.63. 

The momentum indicators also suggest that the bearish trend is declining. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51 on the 4-hour chart, above the neutral zone. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is approaching the zero line, highlighting a growing bullish momentum.

Together, these indicators suggest sellers still maintain control of the broader trend, but the buyers are wrestling for control. 

If the recovery persists, the bulls would encounter immediate resistance at $1.26, with another major one at $1.33. 

A daily candle close above this level could allow XRP to extend its rally towards the 200-day EMA at $1.63.

A breakout above these levels would be required to improve the medium-term outlook and challenge the prevailing bearish structure.

However, if the bearish trend resumes, RP could revisit support around $1.05. A break below that level would place the psychologically important $1.00 support zone under renewed threat.

While rising futures activity and continued ETF inflows indicate improving investor interest, XRP remains trapped beneath multiple resistance barriers. 

Unless market sentiment improves and buyers reclaim key technical levels, XRP’s broader trend is likely to remain bearish despite the current rebound.