Can Bitcoin break above $65,000 as ETF demand returns?

Bitcoin has regained momentum over the past week and briefly climbed above $65,000, but repeated selling near the psychological level has kept the cryptocurrency from securing a sustained breakout.

Data from CoinGecko showed Bitcoin trading around $64,500 on Sunday after touching an intraday high of $65,026.90 within the past 24 hours. 

The cryptocurrency has gained about 3% over the past seven days, recovering from lows near $62,800 before once again running into resistance around the $65,000 mark.

A combination of renewed institutional demand, easing macroeconomic concerns, and derivatives-driven buying helped fuel the latest advance. 

Yet, according to market data and chart indicators, those drivers have not been strong enough to overcome one of Bitcoin's most closely watched resistance zones.

ETF inflows and softer inflation revive buying

Momentum began building after July 14, when US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reversed weeks of persistent outflows and returned to net inflows.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust led several consecutive sessions of positive flows, bringing hundreds of millions of dollars back into the market. 

The inflows improved spot demand, helping Bitcoin gradually absorb sell orders that had weighed on prices through much of June.

The turnaround followed softer-than-expected US inflation data.

Annual consumer inflation eased to 3.5%, encouraging expectations that the Federal Reserve would have more flexibility to keep monetary policy steady or eventually ease conditions. 

The subtle change in macro sentiment encouraged institutional investors to increase exposure to risk assets, including Bitcoin.

As prices stabilised during the week, bearish traders who had opened short positions during the earlier decline began covering those trades. 

The resulting short squeeze added fresh buying pressure, while typically lighter weekend trading volumes allowed the move to accelerate toward $65,000.

Despite reaching the milestone, Bitcoin quickly lost momentum and slipped back below the level before buyers could establish a sustained breakout.

Resistance continues to cap Bitcoin

Several technical factors have combined to limit Bitcoin's advance despite the improvement in sentiment.

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin approached its 50-day moving average near the $65,000-$65,100 region, where automated selling and profit-taking often emerge. 

At the same time, the Volume Profile Visible Range shows one of the largest concentrations of historical trading activity between roughly $63,000 and $65,000, creating a dense supply zone as traders look to exit positions or lock in gains.

Market structure has become increasingly dependent on leveraged derivatives positions rather than sustained spot accumulation. 

Without continued institutional buying, leveraged rallies can lose strength quickly once prices encounter concentrated sell orders.

Outside the crypto market, geopolitical developments have also weighed on investor sentiment. 

Fresh US airstrikes in Iran and renewed tensions between Washington and Beijing triggered a broader risk-off move across financial markets, pressuring equities and limiting appetite for speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin also remains well below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198.

According to market participants, sustained accumulation and several weeks of consistent ETF inflows would likely be needed before the market can challenge higher resistance levels.

Bitcoin price analysis

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to trade above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 exponential moving averages, indicating that buyers still hold the short-term trend despite the rejection at $65,000.

See below:

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

The 20 EMA sits near $64,360, followed by the 50 EMA around $64,016, while the 100 EMA near $63,565 and the 200 EMA around $63,864 form an important support cluster. 

As long as Bitcoin remains above this area, the recent recovery structure remains intact.

The VPVR indicator identifies the $63,000-$65,000 range as the highest-volume trading region over recent months. 

Because so much trading occurred within this zone, sellers have repeatedly emerged whenever Bitcoin approaches its upper boundary, helping explain the multiple failures around $65,000.

Liquidation data from CoinGlass tells a similar story.

The 24-hour liquidation heatmap shows one of the largest clusters of short liquidations between roughly $65,000 and $65,400, with another concentration extending toward $66,000. 

Bitcoin 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: TradingView.

A decisive move through this area could force short sellers to close positions, potentially accelerating a rally toward the $66,000 region.

Support is equally well defined. The heatmap shows dense long liquidation clusters between about $63,700 and $64,000, closely matching the high-volume VPVR zone and the four-hour EMA cluster. 

Losing that support could expose Bitcoin to a deeper move toward $63,000, while a break below that level would bring the $62,000-$62,200 liquidity pocket into focus.

As of publication time, Bitcoin is trading between two major liquidity zones. 

A sustained close above $65,000, followed by a move through $65,400, could open the door to $66,000, whereas failure to defend the $64,000 area would increase the likelihood of another test of support in the upper $63,000 region.