Nvidia stock is near its record high: what's going on with the AI darling today?
AI Sentiment: 78/100 Bullish
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Buy NVDA. The $105B lease guarantee + $1.5B equity investment locks in long-duration demand for Nvidia compute (up to ~12–16 GW through 2030) and signals Nvidia is becoming the default “picks-and-shovels” financier for AI capacity, not just a chip vendor. That should support sustained high utilization and pricing power as power/data-center buildout becomes the binding constraint. Key risk: OpenAI/PORTS-Pike demand underdelivers (or gets delayed), turning Nvidia’s guarantees into costly credit exposure and weakening forward compute volumes.
Key Risk: OpenAI’s data-center ramp slips or demand falls, making Nvidia’s guarantees/credit support a loss instead of a demand driver.
Sell SB Energy exposure via shorting/avoiding its debt and any credit-linked instruments tied to the project (e.g., SB Energy/related SPV bonds/loans if accessible). Nvidia’s credit support and the massive power/grid build create a classic infrastructure leverage profile: long construction timelines, regulatory/power interconnection risk, and refinancing risk. If AI capex slows, these projects can face covenant pressure while Nvidia’s chip demand may be more resilient. Key risk: the campus ramps smoothly and power/grid upgrades land on time, compressing credit spreads and making the short lose money.
Key Risk: The Ohio power/data-center build executes on schedule and AI demand fills capacity, tightening credit spreads and crushing the short thesis.
- Nvidia will guarantee up to $105 billion in OpenAI lease payments.
- Chipmaker will invest $1.5 billion in SB Energy.
- Deal raises fresh questions about Nvidia's role in AI financing.
Nvidia stock NVDA was higher in early Monday trading, rising 1% to around $227, after the chipmaker agreed to guarantee as much as $105 billion in lease payments tied to an OpenAI data center in Ohio.
The facility is being developed by SoftBank-backed SB Energy, which will build, own and operate the campus for OpenAI under a 20-year lease, the companies said Monday.
Nvidia will also invest $1.5 billion in SB Energy and secure up to 8 gigawatts of AI computing capacity at the campus.
The agreement is one of Nvidia's largest infrastructure financing commitments as the chipmaker increasingly becomes involved in financing the infrastructure built around its products.
That strategy can help drive demand for Nvidia's chips but has also raised questions about circular funding flows between the company and its customers.
— Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang) August 17, 2026
Ohio data center to begin operations in 2028
Nvidia has secured land and power in Pike County, Ohio, for the AI data center, which will initially have 4.25 gigawatts of capacity.
The facility is expected to come online in phases beginning in 2028.
Nvidia will exclusively provide AI computing infrastructure at the campus and is providing credit support for land, power and shell construction tied to the initial capacity.
The company also has an option to secure the remaining 3.75 gigawatts.
The project comes as technology companies increasingly link chip supply, power generation and data center development as they race to expand AI infrastructure.
SoftBank and SB Energy plan to build at least 10 gigawatts of new power generation and invest $4.2 billion in regional grid infrastructure through a partnership with AEP Ohio.
OpenAI said the project is expected to create about 35,000 construction jobs through 2032 and about 2,500 long-term operating jobs.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said OpenAI's existing and planned commitments represent about 12 gigawatts of Nvidia compute through 2030, with the potential to reach 16 gigawatts if the PORTS-Pike arrangement is expanded.
At those levels, Nvidia estimates the opportunity at roughly $600 billion of compute through 2030.
Nvidia's financing role draws scrutiny
Nvidia's investment in SB Energy follows a $1 billion investment by OpenAI and SoftBank in January to expand data center and power infrastructure supporting their Stargate AI initiative.
Nvidia had previously discussed providing a guarantee of as much as $250 billion to OpenAI for the data center lease, according to media reports.
The chipmaker has also provided financial backing to other companies building AI hardware infrastructure, including CoreWeave, and has invested directly in OpenAI and AI company Anthropic.
The latest guarantee is Nvidia's largest arrangement of its type, raising questions about the extent to which the chipmaker is financing the infrastructure needed to purchase its own products.
The arrangements have also raised broader concerns about off-balance-sheet financing, guarantees and circular funding structures within the AI ecosystem.
Nvidia rejected that characterization in the Ohio agreement.
"OpenAI will pay the lease," Nvidia said, adding that the deal is not an example of circular financing.
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