Moderna stock falls 20% after record rally as valuation concerns emerge

Moderna shares fell sharply in trading on Thursday as investors took profits after the biotechnology company posted its biggest one-day gain following positive Phase 3 cancer vaccine results.

The retreat also came as analysts raised their price targets but kept several valuations below Wednesday’s closing price, highlighting questions over how much of the clinical breakthrough was already reflected in the stock.

Moderna shares retreat after record rally

Moderna MRNA stock fell 20%% to $138, compared with Wednesday’s close of $174.38.

The decline followed a more than doubling of the shares on August 19 after Moderna and Merck announced positive results from the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 study of their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene.

The trial involved more than 1,100 patients with high-risk melanoma and met both its primary endpoint and key secondary endpoints.

The results marked the first successful large-scale late-stage cancer trial involving an mRNA-based therapy, representing a significant development for Moderna as it seeks to expand beyond its established vaccine business.

However, the magnitude of Wednesday’s rally left the stock exposed to profit-taking. Investors also reassessed the company’s valuation after the sharp repricing.

Biotechnology stocks can sometimes give back a portion of their gains after major clinical trial results as investors lock in profits and reassess expectations, according to market analysts cited in the text.

Analysts raise targets but remain cautious

Analysts increased their price targets for Moderna following the trial results, although some targets remained below the stock’s Wednesday closing price.

RBC Capital raised its price target to $130 from $45 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating.

Bank of America upgraded Moderna and increased its target to $170 from $40.

Bank of America analyst Alec Stranahan described the results as “a watershed moment for Moderna,” arguing that the trial could help the company diversify beyond infectious diseases and potentially reduce persistent capital overhangs.

However, Stranahan said important questions remain about how the combination therapy performs against Keytruda alone.

He noted that a hazard ratio of 0.6 to 0.7 at an upcoming medical meeting like the European Society for Medical Oncology conference would be needed to make the outlook more positive.

His comments suggest that investors may need additional clinical data before assigning further value to Moderna’s cancer program.

Valuation remains a key focus for investors

The revised analyst targets also illustrate the uncertainty surrounding Moderna’s valuation after its record rally.

RBC’s $130 target was below the stock’s Wednesday close, while Bank of America’s $170 target was also lower.

UBS maintained a Hold rating while raising its price target to $150 from $50.

The gap between the new targets and Moderna’s post-rally price highlights the extent to which investors had already priced in expectations surrounding the cancer vaccine results.

The upcoming medical presentation could therefore become an important catalyst for the stock, particularly if additional data provide greater clarity on the treatment’s effectiveness compared with Keytruda alone.

For now, Moderna’s retreat reflects a combination of profit-taking and renewed scrutiny of valuation following an unusually large one-day gain.