SpaceX stock has stalled: here’s why it may rebound to a record high soon

SpaceX stock has moved sideways in the past few days as the recent rebound stalled. SPCX was trading at $135, a few points below this month’s high of $150. It remains nearly 30% above its lowest level this month. So, will the recent rebound continue or will the crash continue?

A look at the crucial SpaceX parts

One way to identify the real SpaceX valuation is to look at its separate businesses. For starters, the company owns several important businesses, including its satellite launching operation, Starlink, X, and its AI operations. All these are operations with a large total addressable market, which the company places at over $30 trillion.

The most recent results showed that its satellite launch business, which counts the US as the biggest customer, made over $962 million, up sharply from the previous $619 million. This figure was much higher than Rocket Lab’s $234 million.

The company’s connectivity business also continued growing, with its revenue hitting $4.2 billion from $3.2 billion in the same period last year. This growth happened as the number of customers jumped to over 12 million. There are now concerns that Starlink will disrupt some of the biggest telecommunications companies in the world.

READ MORE: SpaceX stock rises as Starlink nears 11,000 satellites in orbit

Further, the company’s AI business has become one of the biggest segments, with its revenue jumping to $2.56 billion from $818 million a year earlier. This revenue is coming from Grok, its AI chatbot that is lagging behind other popular names like ChatGPT and Anthropic. 

Most importantly, it owns a large data center business that is competing with other companies like CoreWeave and Nebius. This business has already inked major deals that will give it more than $2 billion in revenue each month. The business will come from companies like Google, Anthropic, and Reflection AI. 

Soaring costs are a major risk

So, we have seen that the three companies that make SpaceX are doing well. The risk, however, is that these businesses are all cost-intensive. Its capital expenditure jumped to $18 billion in the second quarter from $10 billion in the same period last year. 

Most of this spending is in its AI business, including rolling out its data centers. In total, capital expenditure rose to $28.4 billion in the first six months of the year. The management plans to spend tens of billions more over time.

On the positive side, SpaceX ended the last quarter with over $100 billion in cash and marketable securities. It has over $93.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $6.4 billion in marketable securities, and $3.5 billion in accounts receivable. Notably, it has minimal debt, with total liabilities of over $65 billion.

Therefore, there is a possibility that the company’s growth will accelerate in the coming years. Goldman Sachs believes that its revenue will jump to over $474 billion. Analysts believe that its revenue will jump to $44.6 billion this year, followed by $105 billion next year.

What's next for SpaceX stock?

SpaceX stock has dropped sharply in the past few months, moving from the all-time high of $225 to the current $135. This retreat happened as the post IPO momentum faded and lockup expirations occurred. 

Still, while the company’s valuation remains high, there is a likelihood that it will keep doing well in the long term. At some point, the stock will jump to a record high.

This situation has happened among other top big-tech companies in the past. Meta Platforms stock plunged by 50% after its IPO and then soared into a trillion-dollar company a few years later. 

READ MORE: SpaceX stock is soaring: is this a golden opportunity to buy?