Astera Labs stock is recovering: does it have more upside as growth continues?

Astera Labs stock has remained under pressure in the past few months, moving from the year-to-date high of $498 to the current $300. It has crawled back this month, and this recovery will likely continue in the coming months as demand for its products continues rising. 

Astera Labs' business is growing

Astera Labs is a top American company started in 2017 by former Texas Instruments engineers who noted that, while processors in data centers were getting faster, the technologies linking them were not keeping pace.

The three engineers have built products that address these issues and is benefiting from the ongoing data center rollout in the United States and other countries. It counts Amazon as its biggest client, with 86% of its revenue coming from its three largest clients. 

This client concentration is a major risk as losing one client would have a significant impact on its business. However, it also creates an opportunity to add more companies in the data center industry.

Astera Labs business has been growing at a significant rate in the past few years. Its revenue jumped from $79.9 million in 2022 to $852 million in the last financial year. Its recent results showed that its revenue rose by 104% YoY in the second quarter to $392 million.

In other words, the company’s revenue in Q2 was $2 million lower than what it made in the whole of 2024. This growth is expected to continue as its Scorpio fabric switches becomes the largest product family, passing its Aries family. 

Its revenue growth coincided with that of its profits. Its gross margin rose to 73.3%, while its net income jumped to $153 million. The management expects that Astera Labs’ business will continue thriving in the coming months. Its quarterly revenue is expected to be between $540 million and $560 million. 

Analysts, on the other hand, expect that its third quarter will be $550 million, representing a 138% annual growth. For the year, revenue is expected to jump to $1.86 billion, followed by $2.19 billion.

This growth explains why many analysts are bullish on Astera Labs despite its stretched valuation. Northland Securities analysts see the stock rising from the current $310 to $350, while TD Cowen sees it hitting $375. Roth Capital sees the shares rising to $450. 

Astera Labs stock forecast: technical analysis

ALAB stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the ALAB stock has rebounded from the July low of $245 to the current $310. This rebound has coincided with that of other top names in the semiconductor industry. 

The stock is now attempting to move above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. There are signs that it has formed a double bottom pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern.

Therefore, the stock will likely have a strong bullish breakout in the near term. The initial target will be at $367, its highest level on August 4 this year.