Why Dollar General is falling ahead of earnings and key level(s) to watch

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) has returned -19.65% in just five days. The decline happened after the stock touched an all-time high of above $260. Our previous call indicated that the stock was overbought and was heading for a decline. However, the decline in Dollar General has been far worse than expected.

In a note to investors on Friday, Oppenheimer said that Dollar General’s first-quarter earnings would be weighed by weather and increased cost pressures. In March, Oppenheimer faulted “aggressive” first-quarter earnings estimates by Dollar General. The company projected an EPS of between $2.25 and $2.35 per share. Oppenheimer sees an EPS of between $2.18 and $2.25. The analysts cited weaker bottom-line deliveries by peers Target and Walmart.

Dollar General reports quarter results on May 26. The consensus EPS estimate is $2.32 in the quarter, lower than $2.82 last year. The consensus is within the company’s own guidance but below Oppenheimer’s estimates. As the stock continues to fall, investors need to be keen on key levels should Dollar General surprise markets.

Dollar General continues decline after Oppenheimer downgrade

Technically, Dollar General is bearish. The next key support is at $175. If the first-quarter earnings disappoint, the next level to watch will be at $131. Investors should look to buy at or around the key levels if earnings come strong. For now, investors should keep off until Dollar General announces quarter results.

Summary

Dollar General has been declining after hitting an all-time high. The stock weakness has been heightened by a downgrade by Oppenheimer. Investors will be keen on quarterly earnings on May 26.