BTC/GBP, GBP/USD diverge as UK consumer inflation plunges

Bitcoin price retreated in the overnight session even as the mood in the market improved. In the UK, the BTC to GBP (BTC/GBP) price dived to a low of 27,953, which was much lower than the year-to-date high of 30,935. It remains over 100% higher than last year’s low of 13,100. 

UK and US inflation

Bitcoin price retreated after the latest US and UK consumer inflation data. On Tuesday, data by the US Statistics Agency revealed that the country’s CPI continued falling in October as energy costs retreated.

The headline CPI fell from 3.7% in September to 3.2% in October. Similarly, the core CPI moved from 4.2% in September to 4.0% in October. These numbers mean that the country’s inflation is moving in the right direction.

The data came two weeks after the US published weaker jobs numbers. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the economy added over 150k jobs while the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9%.

Therefore, America’s bond yields have retreated sharply in the past few months. The 10-year yield collapsed to 4.45% while the 30-year fell to 4.61%. This performance happened as investors predicted that the Fed would not hike interest rates in the coming meeting.

Meanwhile, the BTC/GBP pair also retreated after the latest UK inflation data. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the headline CPI dropped from 6.7% in September to 4.7% in October. It moved from 0.5% to 0.1% as the price of crude oil continued falling.

Further, the core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, retreated from 6.1% to 5.7%. It also fell from 0.5% to 0.3% on a MoM basis. These numbers are encouraging for the Bank of England (BoE).

Still, there is a likelihood that the BoE will still hike interest rates at least once since bond yields have retreated. In a statement on Tuesday, the BoE Chief Economist said that the bank could deliver at least one more hike.

The BTC/GBP performance has diverged with that of the GBP/USD pair. The latter jumped to a multi-week high of 1.2486 as the US dollar index (DXY) plunged. It has risen by over 3.70% from the lowest point this year.

BTC/GBP technical analysis

BTC/GBP chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the BTC/GBP pair crashed hard in the overnight session. It has dropped from a high of 30,935 to a low of 27,953. The pair remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). 

On a positive side, the pair seems to be forming a smal doji pattern. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bullish, with the next level to watch being the psychological level of 30,000. 

Besides, there are still catalysts for Bitcoin in the long term, including the possibility of a spot BTC ETF. Also, demand is rising as investors embrace a risk-on sentiment ahead of next year’s halving event.