IEA lowers global oil demand forecast for 2024 to 1.1 million bpd

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on May 15, 2024
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  • Oil demand for 2025 is projected to slightly exceed 2024 levels, reaching 1.2 million bpd.
  • Global oil supply is estimated to grow by 580,000 bpd in 2024, hitting a record 102.7 million bpd.
  • The IEA has lowered 2024 oil demand forecast due to weak industrial activity and a mild winter.

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil demand forecast for 2024, reducing it by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1 million bpd, according to the agency’s May outlook released on Wednesday.

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The IEA attributed this downward adjustment to sluggish industrial activity and a milder winter, which have dampened gasoil consumption, especially in Europe.

In Europe, the decreasing number of diesel cars has further reduced consumption. For 2025, oil demand is projected to slightly exceed this year’s levels, reaching 1.2 million bpd.

IEA expects global oil production to grow

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On the supply side, the IEA expects global oil production to grow by 580,000 bpd, reaching a record 102.7 million bpd in 2024.

The agency also anticipates that global oil supply will further increase to 1.8 million bpd in 2025.

This growth in supply comes despite the weaker-than-expected demand growth, which has led to a drop in global refinery margins. In April, all regions experienced a collapse in middle distillate cracks and lower throughput levels due to the subdued demand.

What will be the impact on refinery margins?

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The IEA’s report highlighted that global refinery margins have eased across all regions.

The reduced demand growth contributed to a significant decline in middle distillate cracks and decreased throughput levels in April.

This trend reflects the broader challenges facing the oil industry, with supply continuing to rise even as demand struggles to keep pace.

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