Crypto, stock futures, Polymarket react to Trump, Kamala debate

US stock futures, cryptocurrencies, and crude oil reacted to the latest Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debate. 

Kamala Harris victory odds rise

Futures tied to the Dow Jones dropped by 0.35% while those linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices retreated by 0.40% and 0.46%. The Dow fell by 0.23% on Tuesday while the other two rose by 0.45% and 0.85% ahead of the debate.

Crude oil, on the other hand, stabilised a bit, with Brent, rising by 0.60% to $69.6 and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising by 0.67% to $66.20. Still, crude has been in a strong bearish trend, and sits near the lowest point in over 16 months. The two benchmarks have dropped by over 25% from the highest point this year. 

Cryptocurrency prices were fairly muted as the debate went on. Bitcoin held steady at $56,800 while Ethereum fell slightly to $2,347. Binance Coin (BNB) and Solana (SOL) dropped to $513 and $133, respectively. The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies dropped by 0.9% to $2.09.

This performance is likely a sign that Kamala Harris won the debate against Donald Trump. A good example of this is what happened in the crypto industry. The Kamala Horris (KAMA) token rose by 3.1% to $0.0094, giving it a market cap of over $9.3 million. It has risen by over 10% in the last seven days. 

On the other hand, MAGA Hat, dropped by 6.8% while Doland Tremp and Super Trump fell by over 6% as the debate went on. 

Most important, Harris odds of beating Trump improved on Polymarket. Data from the website shows that the two were tied at 4.9%. Before the debate, Trump had a bigger margin of 54% compared to Harris 47%. The poll has over $859 million in assets.

Another Polymarket poll with over $755k in assets predicted that Harris would be the favourite to win after the debate with a 54% chance. 

What is clear, however, is that the presidential race will be close as recent polls have shown. A closely-watched New York Times and Sienna poll showed that Trump had a one-point lead nationally while they were virtually tied in most swing states.

Trump vs Harris on the economy

Therefore, cryptocurrency prices retreated because Donald Trump is the favorite candidate for the crypto community. In recent statements, he has sounded extremely supportive of the crypto industry. He even holds cryptocurrencies worth over $5 million.

Harris, on the other hand, has little support, partly because she has not expressed support for the industry and is rumoured to nominate Gary Gensler as the Treasury secretary. Gensler is highly disliked by crypto participants for his legislation through prosecution.

Crude oil also stabilised because of her rising odds. Trump has expressed support for the fossil fuel industry, through his drill, baby, drill, policies. In reality, however, Harris and Biden have been relatively good for the industry as energy prices have remained at an elevated level during their presidency. Trump’s policies would lead to more supply, possibly hurting prices. 

Trump and Harris also highlighted their economic plans. Trump has vowed to impose substantial tariffs on countries like China in a bid to lower the trade deficit. This week, he said that he would impose tariffs on countries that abandon the US dollar. 

Harris has pledged to hike taxes on companies and fight price gouging, especially among retailers. 

Assets outlook after the election

The reality, however, is that most assets ignore the president in the long-term. For example, cryptocurrencies have done well during Joe Biden and Gary Gensler’s era. Bitcoin, which was trading at $35,000 when Biden was sworn in, rose to a record high of $73,800. Ethereum was also trading at $1,300 and moved to over $4,000 earlier this year. 

This price action happened even after Gary Gensler sued many companies in the industry like OpenSea, Coinbase, and Kraken. On the positive side, Gensler approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Most importantly, American stocks do well regardless of who is in the White House. Top indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices have touched a record high under most presidencies. 

It is also worth noting that most stocks that are expected to do well or fall during a presidency don’t always perform as expected. For example, solar energy companies, which were expected to boom during Biden’s presidency have underperformed the market. Some have even filed for bankruptcy.

VDE vs ICLN ETFs

On the other hand, crude oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron have done well under Biden. As shown above, the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF has dropped by over 48% under Biden as the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) has risen by 160% in the same period.