Rolls-Royce share price hits turbulence: can it still surge to 1,000p?

The Rolls-Royce share price has stalled in the past few ways as concerns about costs and supply chain issues remained. The RR stock retreated to 775p on Friday, down from the year-to-date high of 817p. This article explores why the RR share price may keep pumping this year.

Donald Trump Liberation Day tariffs won’t hurt

The main reason why the Rolls-Royce share price may keep doing well this year is that its business will not be directly affected by the upcoming Liberation Day tariffs by Donald Trump. 

That’s because, while Rolls-Royce is an industrial giant, it makes most of its money in the civil aviation industry. In addition to selling its engines, the company enters long-term service contracts with airlines like IAG, Etihad, Turkish Airlines, Thai, Qatar, and Lufthansa.

Rolls-Royce sells these companies engines and then enters long-term contracts, which are paid using a pay-per-use model. Airlines typically pay a fixed rate that is calculated per engine flight hour. Airlines prefer this model because it is highly predictable. These contracts are usually long, averaging between 10 and 25 years.

Trump’s tariffs will likely not have a big impact on demand for civil aviation, meaning that the company’s civil aviation business will keep doing well in the future. 

In line with this, since its plants are spread across different countries, the company’s manufacturing business will likely not be negatively impacted by tariffs. Rolls-Royce has plants in the US that make components of its Trent engines. Its other businesses, like defense and power systems, have a large presence in the US. 

The most direct impact of Trump’s tariffs will be on the rising cost of steel and aluminum, which the company.

Read more: 3 reasons the Rolls-Royce share price may soar in 2025

Defense spending boost

The Rolls-Royce share price will likely continue doing well because of the ongoing defense spending boost. Its most recent numbers showed that the country’s defence business did well, with its revenue rising from £4.077 billion in 2023 to over £4.52 billion last year. The operating profit rose from £562 million to £644 million.

European countries are starting to boost their defence spending this year, with many of them being concerned about Donald Trump’s unreliability. Germany recently voted to pass a 500 billion spending bill.

Rolls-Royce is a key beneficiary of this because it manufactures military aircraft engines and submarines. Still, its supply chain challenges are affecting its business. 

AI power demand

The Rolls-Royce share price may do well because of the rising demand for power as data center demand rises. Its power business made £4.2 billion in 2024, higher than the £3.96 billion it made a year earlier. Its gross margins grew to 28.1%. 

This growth may continue because the company has become a major provider of engines that power data centers. Its order backlog jumped by 17% to £4.8 billion. 

Further, analysts believe that Rolls-Royce share price is cheap despite its recent surge. Morningstar analysts have placed a fair value at 960p, up by 25% from the current level.

Rolls-Royce share price analysis

RR stock price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the RR stock price peaked at 817p this year. It has struggled to move above that level several times, forming a risky double-top pattern.

The stock has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have pointed downwards.

Therefore, the stock will likely be volatile in the coming days amid tariff woes and then make a bullish breakout later this year. A surge to over 960p and 1,000p will be validated if the stock rises above the double-top point at 817p. 

Read more: Will the surging Rolls-Royce share price 1,000p in 2025?