Pahalgam terror attack: J&K Bank shares fall; analysts warn of short-term volatility if India retaliates

Jammu and Kashmir Bank shares declined sharply on Wednesday, falling nearly 9% in early trade after a terror attack in the popular tourist destination of Pahalgam in the north Indian region of Jammu & Kashmir left at least 26 civilians dead.

The incident, which occurred on Tuesday afternoon at Baisaran, a scenic meadow often called “mini Switzerland,” has raised fears of heightened instability in the region and triggered a negative reaction from investors.

The stock dropped as much as 8.6% on the BSE, hitting an intraday low of ₹103.41 per share.

On the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and BSE combined, nearly 16.1 million shares were traded by 10:30 AM, significantly above the two-week average volume.

On the BSE alone, around 0.70 million shares changed hands, well above the recent average of 0.52 million shares.

At 1:10 pm IST, the stock was down by 8.05%.

According to Deepak Jasani, a stock market veteran quoted in Business Standard, the stock experienced a knee-jerk reaction on the downside.

"The evolving situation in the region will drive sentiment in the stock over the coming days. The stock may recover with some gap if the situation does not deteriorate further," he said.

One of the deadliest attacks on civilians; TRF takes responsibility

The attack occurred around 3 PM on Tuesday in Baisaran, located about six kilometres from Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir.

The meadow is a well-known tourist attraction, drawing visitors from across India and abroad during spring and summer months.

The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of the banned Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba group, claimed responsibility for the attack.

In a public statement, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said the assault was “much larger than anything we’ve seen directed at civilians in recent years,” hinting at the potential implications for both local security and regional geopolitics.

The incident has drawn international condemnation. US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer all issued statements denouncing the attack and expressing solidarity with India.

Retaliation by India could lead to short-term market volatility: analysts

Despite the tragic incident, broader Indian markets continued their upward momentum, with benchmark indices extending their rally for a seventh consecutive session on Wednesday.

Analysts believe this reflects investor confidence in the resilience of the Indian economy, although geopolitical concerns remain in focus.

Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities, said any retaliation by India could lead to short-term market volatility.

"Unless India undertakes strong military action against Pakistan, any market reaction may be limited. We've already seen the markets absorb extreme events like the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-China tariff standoff under President Trump,” he said.

Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities, echoed this view.

He stated that investors would be closely watching the government’s next steps, whether through diplomatic measures, targeted operations, or a wider military response.

“Today’s macroeconomic backdrop is very different from what it was during the 1999 Kargil War. India’s GDP has grown more than tenfold in just over two decades,” Bathini added, suggesting that the country is now better positioned to absorb such geopolitical shocks.

Veteran analyst Ajay Bagga noted on X (formerly Twitter) that while markets may stay cautious in the near term, any declines in the wake of potential Indian retaliation would likely be short-lived, as seen in past instances.