Will the VOO ETF crash by 10% as a top Morgan Stanley analyst predicts?

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) stock price continued to soar this week, as the Fear and Greed Index rose, following the release of quarterly earnings from some large American companies. 

The VOO ETF reached a high of $577, representing an increase of over 30% from its lowest point in April. Still, one popular analyst believes that it could crash by at least 10% from the current level and then rebound.

Mike Wilson sees the S&P 500 Index plunging

The S&P 500 Index and its top ETFs, such as the VOO, SPY, and IVV, may decline by 10%, according to Mike Wilson, Senior US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. 

In a statement on Thursday, he argued that American stocks will fall as Trump’s trade policies start reflecting on companies' balance sheets. 

Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on all goods imported into the United States, with a minimum rate of 10%. Even after the recent trade deals, the US has maintained tariffs of at least 10%. 

On the positive side, Wilson believes that the 10% crash will be a good entry point as it will trigger the next bull market. He said: 

His statement is notable because he is one of the best equity strategists in the United States. He even won an award for the best strategist in Wall Street for predicting the 2022 crash.

Most recently, he remained optimistic that the S&P 500 Index would rebound after crashing hard after Trump delivered his “Liberation Day” speech. Since then, the US stock market has added about $12 trillion in value. 

Earnings season to continue

The VOO ETF reacted to encouraging earnings from some of the biggest companies in the US. For example, Netflix stock surged after the company released strong financial results, with revenue increasing by 16% during the quarter. 

Wall Street companies like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America all published strong results, helped by high interest rates and the trading segment. 

Read more: NFLX earnings will be strong, but Netflix stock may still sink: here’s why

Looking ahead, more American companies will publish their earnings next week. The most notable of them are Coca-Cola, Serwin-Williams, Danaher, Google, Tesla, IBM, T-Mobile, ServiceNow, and Intel. 

Union Pacific, which will also publish its earnings next week, will be in the spotlight after reports emerged that it was exploring a deal to buy Norfolk Southern. 

There are signs that the VOO ETF will continue soaring in the coming months as risks ease. For one, Donald Trump will likely engineer trade deals with top trading partners. 

Additionally, there are indications that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates later this year or in 2026. 

VOO ETF stock price analysis

The daily chart shows that the VOO ETF stock price has been in a strong bull run in the past few months. It moved from a low of $442 in April to a high of $577. 

The ETF moved above the important resistance level at $560, the highest swing on February 18. It has remained above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

The ETF has formed a golden cross pattern, a highly bullish sign. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have been trending upward.

Therefore, the ETF will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level at $600. Another scenario is where the fund drops to the support at $560 and then resumes the uptrend.