Russian wheat prices hit multi-month low on bumper harvest and oversupply

Russian wheat prices are on the slide, with the average price for 12.5% protein wheat in the European part of the country falling by 150 rubles to 13,700 rubles per metric ton last week, according to SovEcon’s price monitoring.

The level has reached a new low for 2025, falling to its lowest point since August 2024.

This drop is primarily attributable to the substantial new crop supply originating from regions outside the South.

The downward trajectory of Russian wheat prices has continued, with significant declines reported across key federal districts. 

Prices decline

In the Volga Federal District, for instance, prices have now fallen to 11,500 Russian rubles per metric ton (rub/mt), SovEcon’s data showed.

This represents a notable dip, establishing the price at its lowest level since the beginning of July.

A similar trend is observed in the Central Federal District, another major agricultural hub. 

Wheat prices have also softened, dropping to 11,950 rub/mt in the central region.

Mirroring the situation in the Volga District, this price point marks the lowest recorded level for the Central District since early July.

These simultaneous price drops across two major grain-producing regions highlight broader market pressures, likely driven by factors such as increased supply from the current harvest, constrained export logistics, or shifts in global demand dynamics. 

The fact that both districts have reached a multi-month low suggests a systemic softening in the domestic Russian wheat market during this period.

Rising harvest

SovEcon said in its latest update:

SovEcon projects significant growth for the 2025 Russian wheat harvest in key regions. 

The Volga region's output is estimated to rise to 20.3 million metric tons (mmt), a notable increase from 17.7 mmt in 2024. 

Similarly, the Central region is expected to see a sharp jump, with the harvest forecast at 21.3 mmt compared to 16.8 mmt the previous year, indicating a substantial recovery and increased agricultural productivity.

Logistical problems are causing further complications, primarily due to the difficulty of transporting grain from these areas to seaports, the consultancy said.

This issue is compounded by the pre-winter suspension of river navigation.

Prices in the South

Grain prices in the South have seen a decline, dropping to 15,000 rub/mt. 

Despite this recent dip, the current price point remains higher than the levels observed in early July, indicating a general upward trend over the medium term, according to SovEcon. 

The demand for grain originating from the southern regions is currently robust, largely driven by vigorous export activity. 

However, the volume of actual sales being executed is still somewhat constrained.

This suggests a market where buyers are eager to purchase, but sellers may be limiting supply or holding out for higher prices, despite the recent correction.

“We do not rule out a further gradual decline in prices, especially in regions far from export terminals,” Andrey Sizov, managing director of SovEcon, said. 

Russian wheat exports are estimated by SovEcon to reach a record 4.6 million metric tons (mmt) in November, an increase from 4.1 mmt reported in the same month last year.