Morning brief: OpenAI eyes massive subscription growth, Taiwan boosts defence budget

Global technology, geopolitical tensions, and economic market shifts dominated the news cycle as developments unfolded across AI, international security, and financial markets.

OpenAI is forecasting a sharp expansion in paid ChatGPT users, Taiwan is preparing a significant defence spending increase amid rising pressure from Beijing, negotiations toward a potential Russia–Ukraine peace agreement progressed, and Asian equities rallied on hopes of US interest rate cuts.

OpenAI projects 220 million paying ChatGPT users

OpenAI is forecasting a major surge in paid subscriptions for ChatGPT, projecting that by 2030, about 8.5% of an estimated 2.6 billion weekly active users, roughly 220 million, will move to paid plans, according to a report from The Information cited Tuesday.

If realised, this would position ChatGPT among the world’s largest subscription-based digital businesses.

As of July, around 35 million users, roughly 5% of the weekly active base, subscribed to Plus or Pro plans, priced at $20 and $200 per month.

The company’s annualised revenue run rate is expected to approach $20 billion by year-end, though losses are growing due to research, development, and operational costs.

OpenAI expects around 20% of future revenue to come from new features, including shopping tools and advertising-linked products.

Recently, the firm introduced a personal shopping assistant for ChatGPT, signalling a shift toward monetisation through commerce or commission-based models.

Taiwan approves NT$1.25 trillion supplementary defence budget

Taiwan plans to introduce a NT$1.25 trillion ($40 billion) supplementary defence budget as China accelerates military activity near the island, President Lai Ching-te confirmed Wednesday.

Lai said Beijing has intensified “gray-zone harassment” and influence campaigns aimed at destabilising Taiwan’s political environment as it presses toward a goal of reunification by force by 2027.

The president warned of “unprecedented military buildup” by China, citing heightened tension in the Taiwan Strait and across the broader Indo-Pacific region.

China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to the remarks, but Beijing maintains Taiwan is its territory — a stance the island rejects.

Regional diplomatic friction has also expanded, with China demanding Japan retract comments suggesting Tokyo may view a Taiwan conflict as a national security threat.

Ukraine agrees to US peace plan: report

A US official told CBS News that Ukraine has agreed to the core terms of a US-brokered peace proposal to halt Russia’s nearly four-year assault.

Negotiations have involved US, Ukrainian, and Russian representatives in Geneva and Abu Dhabi, though not all parties have met simultaneously.

Officials say remaining disagreements are minor, with potential for a Zelenskyy visit to Washington to finalise terms.

Russia is awaiting an updated draft and is weighing whether the latest revisions still reflect understandings reached in a prior Trump–Putin meeting.

US officials acknowledge Ukraine faces battlefield pressure, particularly around Pokrovsk, and warn military support may not be indefinitely sustainable.

Asian markets rally on fed rate-cut expectations

Asian stocks advanced on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected US retail and confidence data boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

MSCI’s Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index gained 1.27%, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.99%. US futures firmed 0.3%.

Oil prices steadied after falling to a five-week low, while Brent crude traded near $62.01.

Currency markets were broadly stable, and gold ticked 0.2% higher to $4,161.45 per ounce.

Bitcoin was down 0.6% in the last 24 hours at $87,470.35