Robinhood stock soars 8% today: is HOOD leading the prediction-markets rally?

Robinhood stock (NASDAQ: HOOD) jumped nearly 8% on Wednesday after the trading app, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group, announced an agreement to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX.

The deal signals Robinhood’s first major push into regulated prediction-markets and derivatives trading, leveraging a platform once associated with FTX and now aimed at retail traders seeking new products.​

The acquisition could be a turning point.

If Robinhood successfully launches a futures and derivatives exchange, the firm stands to unlock new fee revenue from prediction-market trading and diversify its product mix, a shift analysts say could reshape Robinhood’s revenue outlook if the new venture gains traction.​

Robinhood stock: Deal details & market reaction

Robinhood and Susquehanna’s deal for 90% of LedgerX, purchased from Miami International Holdings (MIAX) and set to close in early 2026, capped a remarkable day for the stock, which surged almost 8% intraday before settling just below that mark by the close.

Data from major exchanges showed a clear spike in trading volume as the news broke, with retail investors leading an initial surge while quant-driven and institutional flows joined later in the session.​

LedgerX’s history adds intrigue: once owned by FTX, it was bought out by MIAX following FTX’s collapse and kept active as a CFTC-regulated platform for crypto-derivatives.

Its latest reinvention aims to turn it into a regulated clearinghouse and exchange for prediction markets, allowing users to bet on everything from elections to inflation data.​

House analysts responded swiftly. Piper Sandler’s team called the move “quite positive,” highlighting that “regulated event markets and futures can provide significant margin benefits compared to most traditional stock trading.”

Robinhood echoed this sentiment, with a spokesperson stating: “We see strong customer demand for innovative, regulated products and believe our reach can accelerate LedgerX’s growth post-launch.”

Markets appeared to agree: HOOD’s move added over $1 billion to its market cap, and the stock closed near session highs as options traders repositioned for new upside scenarios.​

Analytical take: Is this a structural shift for HOOD?

The potential revenue upside for Robinhood is significant.

Futures, derivatives, and especially prediction-market fees represent recurring, higher-margin revenue compared to the company’s current mix of equity transactions and crypto fees.

If the joint venture captures even modest market share, it could alter HOOD’s top and bottom lines more than any prior product expansion.​

Competitive pressure, however, remains fierce. Robinhood faces established derivatives venues like CME Group, newer regulated exchanges, and crypto-native competitors with direct prediction offerings.

Yet, no other player combines Robinhood’s retail user base and mobile distribution, which may give HOOD a strategic edge, provided it can execute on integration, deliver robust compliance, and rapidly scale order flow.​

Risks linger: regulatory scrutiny (especially from the CFTC) looms as prediction markets tiptoe between financial innovation and perceived “gamification.”

Susquehanna brings deep market-structure expertise, but the clearinghouse buildout and regulatory hurdles are daunting. Still, analysts stress the structural nature of the deal.

Piper Sandler estimates the LedgerX rollout could yield mid-eight-figure incremental revenue if successful, while noting that reputational and policy risk is unavoidable at launch.​

If Robinhood can convert its vast retail user base into a consistent fee pool for a regulated prediction-markets exchange, the company’s business model could shift materially, but the path will be tested by regulatory scrutiny, execution complexity, and intense competition.