Why JPMorgan believes oil could crash to $30 over the next two years

Global oil markets may be heading for a turbulent few years, according to JPMorgan analysts.

In their latest research note, they warned that without decisive action to rein in supply, Brent crude could tumble into the $30 range by late 2027.

Despite resilient demand growth, the imbalance between production and consumption is widening, raising the risk of a severe price correction.

The investment firm highlighted three key factors that could drive this dramatic downturn.

Supply growth far outpacing demand

JPMorgan analysts argue that the most pressing issue is the sheer pace of supply expansion.

While global oil demand is expected to rise steadily – by nearly 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1.2 million barrels per day in 2027 – production is forecast to grow at triple that rate.

Much of this increase is coming from outside the OPEC+ alliance, where producers are ramping up output aggressively.

The result could be a surplus of nearly 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026, easing only slightly to 2.7 million barrels in 2027.

Such excess supply would overwhelm demand growth, creating downward pressure that could drag Brent prices into the $30s.

OPEC+ discipline under strain

Another factor is the shifting stance of OPEC+ itself. After years of coordinated cuts designed to stabilize the market, the group has begun raising production again.

This loosening of discipline has already contributed to a sharp decline in prices in 2025, with Brent down about 15% and US crude off nearly 20%.

JPMorgan notes that unless OPEC+ and other producers voluntarily curb output – the imbalance will persist.

Natasha Kaneva, the bank’s head of global commodities strategy, cautioned that “considerable effort will be required to stabilize prices at these levels.”

Without renewed cooperation, the cartel’s ability to act as a stabilizing force may be undermined, leaving the market vulnerable to oversupply, which may eventually drive prices into the $30s.

Market forces may not self-correct quickly

Finally, JPM highlights the risk that natural market adjustments may take longer than expected.

In theory, low prices should stimulate demand while forcing higher-cost producers to shut down.

However, the bank warns that this process could be slow and uneven, particularly among non-OPEC suppliers.

Even if demand rises in response to cheaper oil, the sheer scale of the surplus could keep prices depressed for an extended period.

The analysts maintain forecasts of $58 per barrel in 2026 and $57 in 2027, assuming supply cuts eventually materialise.

But absent intervention, the imbalance could persist long enough to push Brent into the $30 range within the next two years before stabilizing.

Bottom line

JPMorgan’s warning underscores the fragility of the oil market as it heads into the latter half of the decade.

Strong demand growth alone may not be enough to offset the flood of new supply, especially if OPEC+ discipline falters and non-OPEC producers continue expanding.

While voluntary cuts could prevent a collapse, the bank cautions that without them, Brent crude could sink to levels not seen in years – potentially as low as $30 by the end of 2027.