US natural gas price analysis as winter storm fuels bullish price gap

The US natural gas prices began the new week on its front foot; trading with a bullish price gap. The extreme weather experienced in recent sessions in most parts of the US has heightened the heating demand while disrupting supplies. Even so, the inventories are still within the 5-year historical range, indicating that the disruptions will likely be short-lived.

Extreme weather prompts bullish price gap in the US natural gas market

Weather patterns have been a key driver of US natural gas prices in recent months. Less than two weeks ago, the benchmark Henry Hub futures dropped to a two-month low at $3.01 as warmer-than-normal temperatures defined the region’s winter season. 

The weather pattern has since shifted, with extreme temperatures being experienced in various parts of the US for about a week now. According to NatGasWeather, a dangerously cold weather system is set to cover the Plains, Midwest, and Texas as the week progresses. It will then spread to eastern US with lows of -20s expected in coming days.

 Furthermore, it forecasts that heating demand will escalate by the weekend. The predicted surge in demand and subsequent disruptions in supplies is what has bolstered US natural gas prices past $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since December 2022.  

Despite the heightened concerns, the amount of natural gas in storage has remained at comfortable levels. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the inventories dropped by 120 Bcf in the week that ended on 16th January compared to the previous week. However, the stockpile was 141 Bcf higher than a similar period in 2025. It is also 177 Bcf above its five-year average and 5-year historical range. Based on these figures, the supply disruptions will likely be short-lived. 

US natural gas price technical analysis

Henry Hub natural gas futures rallied above $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022. Earlier on Monday, the futures for February delivery rose by about 19% to an intraday high of $6.29. At the time of writing, it was trading slightly lower at $6.22 per MMBtu. 

In the past week, natural gas prices had rallied by 70% to record their highest weekly gain since 1990. Prior to that, it had recorded three consecutive weekly losses as weather patterns continued to shape the short-term demand outlook.

A look at its daily trading chart points to further gains in the ensuing sessions. Since late October 2025 when the 25 and 50-day EMAs formed the bullish golden cross pattern, the short-term MA has held steady above the medium-term MA. Besides, at an RSI of 67, the US natural gas price still has room to surge further before getting into a corrective pullback. 

At its current level, the asset will likely face resistance at $6.46. This may place it within a range as $5.69 remains a steady support zone. With entry of more buyers, the bulls may succeed at breaking the resistance towards its next target at $6.82.