ONDO price outlook: Can $0.30 hold as RWA momentum builds?

ONDO remained under pressure over the past 24 hours, slipping 2.2% to around $0.306 as traders weighed short-term weakness against the project's growing role in the tokenised real-world asset (RWA) market.

The token has struggled to keep pace with the broader crypto market, extending losses to 16.3% over the past week and 31.1% over the last 30 days.

Interestingly, the price decline comes at a time when Ondo Finance continues to expand its institutional footprint.

New tokenised investment products, cross-chain integrations, and broader participation from traditional financial firms have strengthened the long-term RWA narrative.

However, concerns surrounding declining platform activity and a large token transfer have kept sentiment cautious.

Shrinking TVL and token transfer weigh on sentiment

One of the biggest concerns for traders is the recent slowdown in activity across the Ondo ecosystem.

The total value locked (TVL) in Ondo Yield Assets stands at approximately $3.608 billion after declining 1.16% over the past seven days and 3.84% over the past month.

While the decline is relatively modest, it points to capital flowing out of the protocol rather than into it.

TVL often serves as an indicator of user participation and capital committed to decentralised finance applications.

When TVL falls over an extended period, investors frequently interpret it as a sign of weaker platform activity, particularly for protocols built around tokenised financial products.

At the same time, traders have also focused on a transfer of 150 million ONDO tokens, valued at roughly $49.6 million, from an Ondo Finance multisignature wallet.

The movement itself does not confirm that the tokens are being prepared for sale, but it has attracted attention because similar large transfers in the past have sometimes been followed by exchange deposits.

For now, the focus is on whether the transferred tokens remain in custody wallets or eventually move to centralised exchanges.

That distinction could have a significant impact on short-term sentiment.

Strong institutional adoption continues to support the RWA story

While price action has weakened, Ondo Finance continues to strengthen its position within one of crypto's fastest-growing sectors.

The protocol has become one of the leading providers of tokenised real-world assets, offering products backed by US Treasuries while also expanding into tokenised stocks and exchange-traded funds through Ondo Global Markets.

Recent ecosystem developments have broadened that reach even further.

Through an integration with LI.FI users can now access hundreds of tokenised US stocks and ETFs across Ethereum and BNB Chain using cross-chain infrastructure designed to simplify transactions.

The integration also expands distribution across more than 1,000 wallets, applications, and protocols connected to the LI.FI ecosystem while supporting gasless transaction execution.

The expansion follows broader institutional interest in tokenised finance.

Companies including BlackRock, Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, DTCC, Mastercard, and PayPal have all increased their involvement in blockchain-based financial infrastructure as tokenisation continues to move closer to mainstream financial markets.

Ondo has also continued developing Ondo Chain and expanding Ondo Global Markets, both of which are designed to bridge traditional financial assets with blockchain networks.

Industry data further highlights the scale of that opportunity.

The tokenised RWA market has grown to approximately $32.3 billion, with Ondo's USDY product managing around $2.16 billion in assets.

Meanwhile, Ondo's xStocks platform has surpassed $1 billion in total value locked, underscoring growing demand for tokenised equities.

Independent market analysis has also estimated that Ondo controls roughly 62.8% of tokenised stock issuance, placing the protocol among the leading platforms in this rapidly expanding segment.

ONDO price faces a critical technical test

Despite the strong fundamental backdrop, ONDO remains in a clear short-term downtrend.

The token is trading near the lower end of its recent 24-hour range between $0.3057 and $0.3159, with price action centred around a support zone that many traders view as critical.

Technical market commentary shared this week identifies the $0.305-$0.315 area as an important accumulation zone.

A sustained hold above $0.30 could allow the token to recover toward $0.332 before testing the next resistance near $0.37.

However, losing the $0.30 level would weaken that setup considerably. In that scenario, traders are watching the $0.26 area as the next major support where buyers may attempt to re-enter the market.

The immediate direction is therefore likely to depend on two closely watched developments. The first is whether TVL begins stabilising after recent declines.

The second is whether the recently transferred 150 million ONDO tokens remain off exchanges or eventually contribute to additional market supply.

For now, ONDO sits at the intersection of two competing narratives.

Institutional adoption and rapid growth in tokenised financial products continue to strengthen the project's long-term position within the RWA sector.

 At the same time, softer protocol activity and uncertainty surrounding token movements are keeping short-term price momentum under pressure as traders focus on whether the $0.30 support level can hold.