Why is the AI chip trade cracking? Nvidia, AMD and Intel slide premarket

Nvidia, AMD and Intel shares fell in US premarket trading Tuesday as a jump in long-term Treasury yields triggered a retreat from technology and semiconductor stocks.

Nvidia slipped more than 2%, while AMD, Intel, and Marvell fell between 2.6% and 4.8%. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.17% at 4:50 a.m. ET.

The immediate pressure looked macroeconomic rather than evidence of a sudden collapse in AI spending.

The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.327%, its highest since 2007, while fading hopes for a US-Iran settlement kept oil elevated and revived inflation concerns.

Surging bond yields give AI stocks a new problem

Higher government yields create a particularly uncomfortable backdrop for technology companies because they reduce the present value of profits expected years into the future and raise corporate borrowing costs.

That matters for semiconductor stocks after enormous gains built on expectations that AI infrastructure spending will keep accelerating.

When investors suddenly demand a higher return for taking risk, richly valued chip shares can fall even without company-specific bad news.

Nvidia and Tesla led declines among growth stocks on Tuesday, while Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet also traded lower.

The broad nature of the selloff makes the move look more like a valuation and risk reset than a sudden deterioration in semiconductor demand.

AMD shows how high Wall Street's AI bar has become

AMD provides a clear example of the second problem facing the chip trade: good results are no longer always good enough.

The company recently forecast third-quarter revenue of about $13 billion, above Wall Street's $12.52 billion estimate, while Chief Executive Lisa Su said data-centre revenue should more than double by 2027.

Yet AMD shares dropped sharply after the results.

“We suspect expectations had moved higher following Intel's results a couple of weeks ago, and the buyside already has a fairly bullish outlook,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon told Reuters.

TD Cowen analysts said AMD faced a “very high bar” even though the results and guidance were solid.

That captures the problem across AI stocks. Investors are increasingly paying for continued acceleration rather than merely strong demand.

Rising Treasury yields make that hurdle harder because they give investors a more attractive alternative to expensive growth equities.

Nvidia and Intel show AI demand has not cracked

The fundamental counterargument remains substantial.

Nvidia announced this month that it is working with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR on platforms intended to mobilise more than $500 billion of third-party capital for AI infrastructure.

Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold maintained a Strong Buy rating and $330 target, according to Investor's Business Daily, arguing that additional financing could extend the AI boom.

Bank of America's Vivek Arya kept a $350 target and said the structure shifts much of the financing burden away from Nvidia.

Intel's recent results also point to resilient demand.

Its second-quarter Data Center and AI revenue reached $6.26 billion, beating the $5.37 billion analyst estimate, while third-quarter revenue guidance exceeded expectations.

Futurum Group strategist Shay Boloor said that Intel could keep rerating if it turns current data-centre shortages into sustained growth while improving foundry economics.