US job openings hold steady at 7.7 million in October, higher than expected

US job openings were little changed in October, offering another sign of a cooling labour market as policymakers grapple with the economic impact of tariffs, stubborn inflation and delayed federal data.

The Labor Department reported on Tuesday that vacancies stood at 7.67 million, almost unchanged from September’s 7.66 million.

Economists had expected a sharper downturn, forecasting openings to fall to around 7.2 million for the month.

Instead, hiring and separations also stayed largely flat, underscoring a labour market that is slowing but not yet flashing recession-level distress.

Hiring and separations remain subdued

The JOLTS report showed that hires held steady at 5.1 million in October, with no notable movements across major industries.

Total separations also remained unchanged at 5.1 million.

Within this category, quits were flat at 2.9 million while layoffs and discharges stood at 1.9 million.

Some industries showed declines: total separations dropped by 111,000 in health care and social assistance, and fell by 34,000 in the federal government.

Job openings in the federal sector also declined by 25,000.

The slight rise in layoffs and another month of subdued quits – usually considered a measure of worker confidence – point to an employment environment marked by caution.

Job openings have now come down markedly from the peak of 12.1 million recorded in March 2022 during the post-pandemic expansion.

Policy uncertainty weighs on economic outlook

The labour market’s gradual cooling reflects the lingering impact of the aggressive rate increases the Federal Reserve deployed in 2022 and 2023 to curb runaway inflation.

But economic uncertainty has also intensified following President Donald Trump’s reversal of decades of free-trade policy in favour of sweeping tariffs on imports from most trading partners.

Businesses have struggled to gauge future costs, with many importers passing on higher prices to consumers.

Inflation remains stuck above the Fed’s 2% target, complicating the central bank’s policy decisions.

Normally, elevated inflation would argue against cutting rates.

But signs of labour-market weakening have led many analysts to expect that the Fed will reduce its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year at this week’s policy meeting, though the decision is expected to spark internal disagreement.

Federal shutdown disrupts flow of data

A 43-day federal shutdown has further clouded the economic picture.

The October JOLTS report was released a week late, while September’s data was never published separately due to furloughed workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Instead, both months’ data were combined into Tuesday’s release.

The disruption continues: the Labor Department will publish November’s employment numbers next Tuesday, nearly two weeks behind schedule.

October’s unemployment rate is unavailable altogether, as officials were unable to collect the necessary survey data during the shutdown.

Some October hiring figures will be released alongside the November report.

Forecasts point to further slowdown

Economists surveyed by FactSet expect employers added fewer than 38,000 jobs in November — a level that would underscore the labour market’s marked deceleration.

They also anticipate the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, which, while low by historical standards, would mark the highest level in nearly four years.

The muted labour data provided a modest boost to the US dollar, with the US Dollar Index up 0.19% at 99.29 at the time of publication, as investors await clarity from the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday.