USD/RUB forecast as Russian Urals crude shoots above $60
- USD/RUB exchange rate has drifted downwards in the past few days.
- Crude oil price has jumped to the highest level in months recently.
- Russian ural has moved above the important resistance level at $60.
The USD/RUB exchange rate has dropped in the past four straight days as the price of Russian urals drifted upward. The pair retreated to 89.75 on Friday, lower than the year-to-date high of 94.36. In all, the pair has soared by more than 74% from the lowest level in 2022.
Russian crude oil is rising
Copy link to sectionThe price of crude oil has jumped recently, as demand slowly makes a comeback. Brent jumped above the key resistance level at $81.13, the highest level since April. It has risen by more than 14% from the lowest level this year.
Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $76.98, higher than the year-to-date low of $63.53. Most importantly, data shows that the price of Russian urals has also jumped above $60 per barrel.
This performance is important for Russia, a country that is struggling to finance its budget because of western sanctions. A few weeks ago, Putin’s administration announced another set of windfall taxes from the biggest companies in the country.
The USD/RUB pair’s retreat also happened because of the overall weaker US dollar. The closely watched US dollar index continued falling after the latest US inflation and jobs numbers. Data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the economy created over 209k jobs in June.
Another report published this week revealed that inflation dropped to 3% in June. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, dropped from 5.3% to 4.8%. Therefore, the US dollar index slumped as investors anticipate a peak of Fed rate hikes.
The next key data to watch will be the latest US export and import price index and the COT report. COT is an important report that looks at the positioning by investors and speculators in the futures market.
USD/RUB technical analysis
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USDRUB chart by TradingView
The USD/RUB exchange rate jumped to over 94 this month, the highest level since March last year. It then pulled back slightly this week as the price of crude oil rebounded. The pair has moved below the upper side of the ascending channel.
The USD to RUB price remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bullish trend as buyers target the next key resistance level at 100. This view will be confirmed if it moves above the year-to-date high of 94.36.
