Palladium and platinum prices forecast as the plunge continues

Platinum prices continued its downward trend on Tuesday after the latest Chinese economic numbers. It dropped to a low of $888, the lowest level since October last year. Palladium, on the other hand, plunged to $1,235, December 2018 lows.

Demand concerns remain

Platinum price has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months. This decline continued on Tuesday after the latest Chinese economic data. As I wrote here, economic data showed that youth unemployment rate jumped to a record high.

Further, data revealed that industrial production, fixed asset investments, and retail sales jumped at a slower pace. As a result, most analysts believe that the economic output will be slower than expected.

China is an important market for industrial and precious metals like platinum, palladium, and silver. In most cases, platinum prices tend to do well when key economies like Germany, China, Japan, and the United States are growing.

Platinum price is also dropping as automakers shift from the expensive palladium in a bid to save money. Now, with palladium also falling, we could see some rebalancing in the industry.

On a positive side, there are signs that platinum will see a big deficit this year. World Platinum’s supply deficit is expected to jump to 983k ounces this year compared to a surplus of 854k ounces.

Platinum price forecast

The daily chart shows that platinum prices formed a double-top pattern at around $1,1100 between January and April this year. It made a few false breakouts in April and May before making a strong bearish breakout.

Platinum price has now moved below the neckline of the double-top pattern at $902.81. In price action analysis, a double-top is usually a bearish sign. The price is also below the 50-day and 25-day moving averages and the support at $892.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly below the neutral point. Therefore, the path of the least resistance is bearish, with the next level to watch being at $823, the lowest level in September last year.

Palladium price prediction

The daily chart shows that palladium price has also been falling lately. However, unlike platinum, it has formed a strong support at $1,210, where it has struggled moving below this year.

The metal has remained below the descending trendline shown in green. This trendline connects the highest levels since December. Also, it has moved below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.

Therefore, the outlook for palladium is also bearish if bears can remain constantly below the support at $1,210. If this happens, the next level to watch will be at $1,100.