Gold price forecast: how steady is the support at $1,800?

Gold price has edged higher in early Monday trading, even as it continues to hover around the critical level of $1,800 per ounce for the second session in a row. In the short term, the precious metal will likely consolidate around this zone before the stronger force defines its next move.

Fundamentals

On the one hand, some bulls will likely buy the dip amid concerns over slowed global growth and a probable recession. Profit-taking of the placed shorts also explains why the prices have bounced off Friday’s low of $1,800.

Gold is a conventional safe haven during times of economic and political uncertainties. Even so, investors have turned to the US dollar; pushing it to a 20-year high. As at 07:52 a.m GMT,the dollar index was at $104.53 after easing from the prior session’s high of $105.04; its highest level since December 2002. A strong greenback has made the commodity more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

The rebound in Treasury yields is also weighing on gold price. The benchmark 10-year yield is at 2.92% after pulling back to 2.81% late last week. US bond yields have been on the rise since late February amid heightened bets for aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Jerome Powell has indicated that the Fed officials are not actively considering a rate hike of 75 basis points. Even so, some investors are of the opinion that heightened probability of a recession may push the central bank to a more aggressive hike.

On the data front, the precious metal will be reacting to China and US industrial production figures set for release on Monday and Tuesday respectively. US retail sales on Tuesday and remarks from various Fed officials will also impact the market.  

Gold price forecast

Gold price is finding support along the crucial zone of 1,800 even as it remains on a downtrend. In mid-April, the precious metal hit the month’s high at 1,998.79. Since then, it has declined by close to 10%. As at the time of writing, it was at 1,805.79 after bouncing off Friday’s low of 1,800.26.

As shown on a daily chart, it is trading below the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. In the new week, the current support zone will remain a crucial one. Subsequently, the range between 1,800 and 1,824.47 will be worth watching. On the flip side, if the bears manage to push gold price past the aforementioned support level, they may have an opportunity to retest January’s low of 1,780.